The initial predictions from the stats nerds are not optimistic about the Yankees’ chances in the American League East.
FanGraphs has released its first ZiPS projections earlier this week, and things aren’t looking good for the Bronx Bombers if no more signings happen this season.
The Yankees are projected to have 87 wins in 2026, the second-fewest in the division behind the Blue Jays (90), Red Sox (90) and Orioles (88).
Only the Rays (75) have fewer wins.
That number would be the Yankees’ lowest over a full season since 2023, when they went 82-80 and missed the postseason, and the second-fewest in the past decade.
Fangraphs gives them just an 18.9 percent chance of winning the division and a 41.4 percent chance of clinching one of the three AL wild card spots.
The disappointing earnings estimate comes after a relatively quiet offseason for the Bombers.
The Yankees re-signed Cody Bellinger to a five-year, $162.5 million deal and brought back Trent Grisham after he accepted the qualifying offer, but did little else to improve the lineup.
Left-hander Ryan Weathers, acquired in a trade from the Marlins, will provide rotation depth, although his ability to stay on the field has been a question for most of his career. The starting staff has plenty of other questions elsewhere, with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt all coming out of surgery and returning at various points after opening day.
In the bullpen, the Yankees lost Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to the Mets in free agency.
Earlier this week, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman expressed confidence in his team’s roster.
“I have been openly ready to challenge everyone that we don’t have a squad for the Championship [and] team,” Cashman said. “And our job is to try to make it better as we go.”
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