In view of a recovery quarter after losing in the derivatives segment in the previous quarter, the street will concentrate on trends in the field of asset quality, credit costs and comments on deposit -mobilization and follow -up planning after the Q4 shock.
1. Pat
Net profit is expected to fall 65% to 91% yoj, which reflects the aftermath of the Q4 loss and the continuous delivery tax.
The lender had reported a consolidated net loss of RS 2,329 Crore in his Q4FY25.
- Emkay: RS 194 Crore, decrease 91% JoJ)
- Nomura: RS 350 Crore, a decrease of 85% JoJ
- Nuvama: RS 740 Crore, 65% Jojer decrease
- Kotak -shares: RS 534 Crore, a decrease of 75% yoj
2. NII / NIM:
Net interest income (NII) becomes an estimated 22-25% yoj, but NIMS can restore QoQ after the derivative loss of Q4.
- Emkay: 4,080 crore, a decrease of 24.6% yoj and a decrease 33.8% qoq | NIM: 3.1%, Down 118 BPS Yoy and Higher 82 BPS QoQ
- Nomura: RS 4,150, 23% JoJ and an increase of 36% QoQ | NIM: 3.2%, a decrease of 103 BPS Yoy and an increase of 97 BPS QoQ
- Nuvama: RS 4,200 Crore, 22% JoJ and a decrease 38% QoQ | NIM: 3.40% lower
- Kotak: RS 4,227 Crore, 22% JoJ and an increase of 39% QoQ | NIM: 3.1, Down 106 BPS Yoy and 87 BPS QoQ
3. Pre-Prision Operating Profit (PPOP):
Operational profitability is expected to be weak, which is a reflection of muted core income and cost pressure.
- Nomura: RS 2,260 Crore, a decrease of 23% yoj and 561% qoq
- Nuvama: RS 2,480 Crore, 36.8% JoJ and a decrease of 625% QoQ
- Kotak: RS 2,394 Crore Down 39% JoJ
4. Loans and deposits:
Nomura expects a decrease of 4% yo -y and 3% QOQ in Q1 loans while holding a flat ye -growing in deposits at RS 3.97,200 Crore. It can fall 3% QoQ.
In the meantime, Nuvama sees loans at RS 3.34,500 CRORE, a decrease of 3.9% yoJ and a decrease of 3.1% qoq. With regard to the deposits, a decrease of 0.3% JoJ and 3.3% QoQ to RS 3.97.200 Crore is expected.
Kotak expects the deposit growth at 1% yoj, better than feared, given recent concerns.
5. Provisions and credit costs:
The provision is expected to be increased due to MFI stress.
- Nomura: Provisions RS 1,790 Crore, an increase of 71% JoJ and 29% QoQ
- Kotak: Expect slippages of £ 1,700 crore (≈2%) from MFI
- Emkay / Nuvama: see also high stress-related provisioning, albeit moderating QoQ
6. Credit costs
Nomura expects credit costs to rise to 2.1%with 81 BPS Yoy, while 83 BPS QoQ will fall.
7. Most important monitorables
Brokers see trends of asset quality in the MFI portfolio as an important monitor. Investors must also be careful for deposit -mobilization, marginal costs of funds and administrative situation.
(Disclaimer: recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)
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