India is ready to play a crucial role in shaping the global grain market in the coming decade. It comes both as an important producer and as an important importer, in particular wheat, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034.
By 2034, India is expected to contribute nearly 30 percent of the worldwide increase in the wheat output, fed by rising yields and area expansion, encouraged by Atma Nirbharta Initiatives. It is also ready to catch up with China as the world’s largest rice producer, good for 41 percent of the expected increase in the worldwide output. However, the rising domestic demand, especially for wheat, means that India can become a net importer towards the end of the prediction period.
At the same time, it is expected that Indian corn exports and biofuel-connected use will grow steadily, supported by policy and worldwide price dynamics. The recent removal of rice export restrictions is also given the recovery of his position as the best row exporter, which strengthens his dominance in world trade, according to the Outlook.
Volatile prices
Corn prices rose steadily from July 2024 to February 2025, with $ 221 per ton, largely because of the global supply, including lower shares in Brazil and a strong demand for American exports. Current uncertainties about trade policy and harvest results in Argentina and Brazil further stimulate volatility.
The wheat prices were more volatile and float between $ 250 and $ 270 per ton to the end of 2024 before the year on year fell in February 2025. Despite lower outputs in Russia and the EU, large domestic shares helped to subject the international prices in large importers China and Pakistan.
In the meantime, barley prices are resuming a long -term upward trend due to a tight supply of important exporters and a robust demand for food and malt use. The international rice prices, on the other hand, fell sharply after India had rolled back the export party at the end of 2024. The expected bumper harvests in the northern half countries, which delayed the demand in Indonesia in Indonesia and the weakening of the most important exporters in this decrease.
Food & feed use
By 2034, the global demand of grains is expected to reach 3.2 billion tonnes (BT), an increase of 2.8 BT, with food use good for 40 percent, followed by feed by 33 percent and biofuels and industrial use by 27 percent. Wheat and rice remain largely food crops, while corn and other coarse grains are still being dominated.
India and China will stimulate almost a third of the expected 11 percent increase in global wheat consumption. Rising wheat intake per head of the population, especially in Asia and parts of Africa, along with the demand for wheat with high-protein for processed foods, is expected to reform worldwide supply chains.
The demand for corn food is expected to rise slower than in the past, especially in China, where strategies for feed efficiency and diversification retain. In Africa, however, the Sahara remains an important food component, where demand grows 2.8 percent annually.
The growth of grain production in the coming decade is expected to slow down in the expansion of the area area, but in general remain stable, driven by yield improvements. Worldwide grain yields are expected to grow by 0.9 percent annually and reach an average of 4.2 tons/hectares by 2034.
The outlook expects India to lead profit in both wheat and rice, while the US, Brazil and China will contribute the most to growth. Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America will also see considerable profits, helped by technology and infrastructure investments. Nevertheless, it is expected that yield differences between regions with high and low incomes will continue to exist, with productivity stagnation in some areas that pose a challenge for global food security.
More flows, higher risks
The global grain trade is expected to grow by 14 percent by 2034, with wheat export that rises to 226 million tons (MT) and corn to 210 MT. Russia remains the top wheat-exporter, while Brazil is expected to see the best profit in the export of corn, reinforced by yield wins and the policy-driven import reductions of China.
India, next to Vietnam and Thailand, is expected to dominate the export of rice. Africa will remain highly dependent on imports, in particular on rice and wheat.
Extreme weather conditions, outbreaks of vermin and geopolitical tensions-included the continuing effects of the war in Russia, however, can all disrupt trade and the offer. In addition, policy shifts, in particular that focused on sustainability and self -supply, can change global trade flows and prices. Biofuel-linked grain question, concern about food security in import-dependent regions and fluctuating demand from China remain important swing factors.
Price views
By 2034 it is expected that the nominal prices of wheat, corn and barley will return to trend levels at $ 296/ton, $ 225/ton and $ 252/ton. The rice prices are expected to relieve up to $ 490/ton, since the stocks normalize the curbs after export. In real terms, however, all grain prices are expected to fall as a result of productivity gain, according to the prospects.
Published on July 23, 2025
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