In The Trenches: Offensive Line Matchup Metrics – Week 3

We return to the trenches to look at the upcoming O-Line vs D-Line (and LBS) matchups. The goal is to evaluate what we can expect in the passing and running game, which is so dependent on the ins and outs of the trenches.

Before we do that:

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Fit

Let’s start with the passing game. The table below shows the power of the O-line to protect the QB in the passing game compared to the D-Line (and LBS) ability to disrupt the passing game.

Exploit

Indianapolis Offense vs Tennessee Defense: Daniel Jones has so far been a good-news story, causing the Colts to lead to a 2-0 record, including the upset victory against Denver last week. Give the child for some time with a few game makers and a Stat line of almost 300 meters per game, 71% completion percentage and O INTs are the result. The Titans Pass Rush is on the bottom third in the competition, so look more of the same here. I am not saying that he is necessarily your starter in 1-QB competitions, but if he does not start in your Sflex competitions, what do we really do here?

Neutral

Los Angeles Chargers Offense vs Denver Defense: This shows as one of the best matchups because of the capacity of the charger to give Justin Herbert the time in the passing game. He has been very efficient so far and completed fits on a clip of more than a 72%. We have also (finally) seen a turnout in Quentin Johnston, who has been able to get down and have on average almost 14 meters per target. From Denver’s side, their acclaimed defense is not based on their ability to put pressure on the QB, just 13 ranking^one In this category. I go neutral in this game, especially because Herbert only about 30 passages per game on average. If that taps a little, watch out.

Fade

Seattle Offense VS New Orleans Defense: This is probably feeling like a Seahawks Slam Play, and perhaps, but the figures suggest at its best under the competition average. The O-Line of Seattle has been surprisingly bad in protecting Sam Darnold so far, and that can be seen. Darnold is on average around 225 passing yards per game with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. The Saints Passtrush is also in the lower third part of the competition. There will probably be something here, and I bet that it is on the side of Seattle, but don’t be surprised if you remain disappointed about the level of the production of passing games.

Hurry

Now we switch to the hasty game. This table compares the power of the O-line to make running lanes versus the possibility of the D-line (and LBS) to connect those holes.

Exploit

Carolina Offense VS Atlanta Defense: The Panthers have a favorable Geul Matchup this week in the Run game, which comes in with the #2 general matchup. The power of the Falcons to stop the run now ranks one of the worst in the competition. I had to check the numbers double to be sure, but it is correct, their hasty defense (or rather, the sum of their parts) is not great now. My “professional” eye says they are not that bad, but this week I am still high on Chuba Hubbard and can make Carolina special to my upset.

Neutral

Cleveland Offense vs Green Bay Defense: This does not succeed in the eye test. To their honor, the browns O-Line has done a very good opening of RB riding strips. Last week we saw Quinshon Judkins start his career with an average of 6.1 yards per attempt. Of course, Judkins is a talented runner, but the O-line here also deserves the honor. I am neutral here because of the other side of the ball. That defense of Packers is legitimate. Don’t be tempted by the figures browns fans, but only the expectations here.

Fade

Las Vegas Offense vs Washington Defense: I Downgrade Ashton Jeanty this week. He comes in at only 81 hasty yards on the season on 30 Carry’s. For all your mathematics wizards that are there, that is only 2.7 meters per Carry. The commanders are very good versus the haste, which means that 30 meters on the 3-head RB monster of the Giant in week 1 and “fair” 84 Yards to Josh Jacobs in Lambeau last Monday evening. Without Jayden Daniels, Washington will have to lean on their defense this week and I think they will get it done.

Those are all people

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Until next time, my friends.