We’re putting a bow on Prospect Week with a post-hype look at one of last season’s best farmhands, Kristian Campbell. This time last year, Campbell was the biggest riser on prospect lists across the industry, a consensus top 10 player who had gone from relative obscurity to the cusp of the major leagues in just a year. As we head into the first games of the spring, he has fallen out of the lineup and will likely start the 2026 season in Triple-A. His career path serves as a good reminder that growth isn’t linear, and a player’s developmental path doesn’t end when he reaches the majors or exhausts his rookie status.
After playing just one season of college baseball, Boston selected Campbell in the fourth round of the 2023 draft as a tool player with contact skills but also a quirky, choppy swing. He put on 15 to 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason, which helped create an offensive explosion. His strength shot from average to plus overnight, and he started lifting the ball more, both of which he managed without blowing his whiff out of proportion. He posted a 178 wRC+ across three levels that season, with 20 home runs and a strikeout rate under 20%. Although little about his operation in the box seemed conventional, many evaluators — including, crucially, the Red Sox brass — fully bought in. The Red Sox placed Campbell on the Opening Day roster and then gave him an eight-year, $60 million extension less than a week into the season.
Initially everything went well. Campbell won AL Rookie of the Month honors in April after hitting .301/.407/.495 with four home runs. His strikeout rate rose north of 25%, which in itself wasn’t alarming as it was accompanied by power and a 15% walk rate; it’s completely normal for rookies to swing and miss some while still adjusting to the competition. Defensively, Campbell played primarily at second base, while also filling in in left and center. He didn’t look great at the keystone, and the jury was still out on his long-term defensive home, but if nothing else, his versatility itself was a boost for the ballclub.
On April 30, Campbell went 0–4 in a game against the Blue Jays, then missed the next three games with rib discomfort. We cannot know to what extent he was affected by that injury. For his part, Campbell said so was no problem end of May: “No. That’s all clear. There was just some discomfort on the side, but it’s all good.” Regardless, it was a turning point in his season:
April flowers and May showers
| BA | OBP | Snails | K% | BB% | ISO | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March-April | .301 | .407 | .495 | 26% | 15.4% | .194 | 150 |
| May-June | .159 | .243 | .222 | 28.5% | 7.1% | .063 | 30 |
By mid-June, the Red Sox had seen enough and sent Campbell to Triple-A for the remainder of the season. Crucially, his drop in production coincided with a sudden and complete inability to pull the ball.
April:
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Campbell didn’t run a good velo over the Green Monster even in April, but he did hit several heaters hard to the left of second base and had no trouble inducing a spin to left. He returned to that in Triple-A, although somewhat worryingly all of his pull-side damage came from hanging breaking balls. While Campbell had an unspectacular summer in Worcester – 118 wRC+, 26.7% strikeout rate – the Red Sox lineup hummed along without him. A mix of players who filled in ably at second place, Romy González especially among them, while Boston had more good outfielders than room to play them. All over the news in March and April, Campbell ended the 2025 campaign as a forgotten man.
Even at his peak, Campbell was a somewhat divisive player. While some scouts were willing to overlook his unorthodox swing, others were concerned about his mechanics. He had a double toe tap and then a big front hip leak that worked in part because he had a huge hip-shoulder separation and was able to avoid flying open even as his lower half crawled to third base. The top half was also concerning for some raters, as Campbell’s violent and rotating hack involved a lot of head movement and often left him off balance. Additionally, bat speed and good hand-eye coordination helped, but not everyone liked what they saw.
Now that Boston has literally bought the breakout, one wonders whether Boston is now taking the collapse for granted as well. There are signs, if you want to look at it that way. The Red Sox sent Campbell to winter ball this offseason, hoping that calmer moves in the box would help him regain his potential. Between these adjustments, trade takes precedence Caleb Durbinand what initially seemed uncertain defense plans focus on the outfield but then made room for him take ground balls once back at camp (all just a few months removed from when he started). working at first base), you’d be forgiven for thinking he doesn’t feature in the club’s immediate plans. Fair enough, considering last season’s production and this season’s lineup.
But all that tinkering raises more questions than it answers. Were Campbell’s problems in May and June really the inevitable result of an unconventional turn of events? Is it possible that the league’s adjustments to the young starter, possibly combined with a nagging rib problem, have had an effect on a rookie who was already shouldering a difficult defensive load after very little collegiate and minor league experience? You can provide arguments for, against or in between to these questions; after all, the man is in limbo.
Last year, just after Campbell’s demotion, Eric wrote: “Like almost everyone else, I went into 2025 convinced that this weird swing would work for Campbell, even if it is unconventional. Even though he was demoted shortly before [list] publication, I still think it will be… two years ago this man was playing in his only college baseball season and now he’s facing the best pitchers in the world. He deserves time to adapt and hopefully get stronger so he doesn’t have to wind up his whole body to swing hard.”
I’ll second that idea, and the comment about more power in particular. It’s a long season and all the moving parts in Campbell’s swing mean that a small disruption to one part of the body could disrupt the entire operation; Having the strength to withstand the rigors of the schedule is important for everyone, but perhaps especially for him. And let’s not lose sight of the talent here. However unusual, Campbell’s bat speed, short swing and good approach were effective for a time. The history of this sport is full of guys going the other way with fastballs and pulling breaking balls, and for a month it looked like Campbell had found a way to follow in those footsteps. I still think he can; Whether he wants to or not is up to us to find out.
#Limbo #PostProspect #Kristian #Campbell