Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, gamblers and analysts often rely on a wide range of statistics and models to get a competitive advantage. These vary from basic box score statistics to advanced statistics available in PFF’s Premium Statistics 2.0 and models such as Josh HermsmeyerBuy a low model and wopr (weighted opportunity rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyzes to help gamblers and fantasy managers to refine their strategies. That is why I have developed a new metric that offers various benefits compared to Wopr. Click here for an in -depth explanation of the model, my process and its benefits.
Quick refresher course
With the help of a predicted target model, we can, in combination with PFF data at Routes level, make two very stable and predictive statistics: share of predicted goals and share of predicted air yards.
We can combine this and create a predicted wopr -metthrical that is both more stable and more predictive than actual wopr.
Pwopr = (1.5 * share of predicted goals) + (.7 * Share of predicted air yards)
Furthermore, we can compare this with the actual wopr and actual fantasy points of the players to predict potential breakout players in the coming weeks.
Breakout -candidates: Week 2
As a quick refresher course on how regression-to-de-man models work: the fantasy points of a player per game (FPPG) are projected on the basis of their three-week Pwopros average (more explained here). For this week’s projections, only one week of 2025 data is available and is used accordingly.
Pwopros is considerably more stable than FPPG and serves as a stronger indicator for future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the rest is calculated by deducting the predicted FPPG of a player from their actual FPPG. Players with a strong PWopr and a residue of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players stay on the list until one of the following conditions is met:
- They fulfill their Pwopr -potential with a big game
- Their Pwopros is declining to match their expected FPPG
Every week the top five players in Pwoprr are marked from the route -based hero table. All players on this table have an extraordinary opportunity to deliver a breakout performance.
Devonta Smith placed the fourth highest PWOPR in week 1, but managed only 4.6 PPR points and unusually low output for that level of opportunities. Since 2021, only one other player has recorded a WOPR-PWOPR-Differential even worse than –0.5: Michael Pittman in week 13 of 2022, who recovered the following week with a 16-point performance. If the Eagles are forced in a more pass-have-haeavy script against the Chiefs, which ended 2024 with the seventh highest PFF-Run-Defense degree, Smith can stand in line for an outbreak.
DK Metcalf arranged in 10th place in Pwoprin in week 1 and has converted it into a respectable 12.6 PPR points. His Outlook in week 2 is promising because he is confronted with a Steelers defense that ended 2024 with the 11th lowest pff-cover quality and a middle-of-the-pack pass Rush (15th). That combination can open the door for Metcalf to convert an elite opportunity into an even greater fantasy output.
A potential care for Metcalf is the mismatch between his use and the tendencies of his quarterback – he led the team in predicted adot, while Aaron Rodgers set the fastest time to throw in week 1. That gap can close the ceiling of Metcalf unless the attack adapts. Nevertheless, this week has added intrigues with the Revenge Game story; The study by Jennifer Eskins stated that players have the expectations to exceed expectations when they are confronted with former teams – another reason why Metcalf remains a compelling breakout candidate.
The breakout 23.6-point performance of EMEKA EGBUKA in week 1 deserves a place on this list, but they are underlying statistics that are especially remarkable. Ranking 13th in Pwopros despite competing with Mike Evans for goals gives a strong partition – an important feature in the model. Although two touchdowns may not be sustainable, his use indicates a consistent role in the future. The matchup against Houston is a mixed bag: the Texans bring Elite Passrush statistics but struggled in coverage. If the line of Tampa Bay stands, Egbuka is well positioned for another productive outing.
Alec Pierce’s .59 Pwopros is in second place on the Colts in week 1 and only followed Michael Pittman. Despite the strong user signal, his week 2 outlines are less favorable. He will be confronted with a Denver defense that is the top-15 in both coverage and pass-rush figures, and he is bound to a quarterback struggling with deep accuracy, because Daniel Jones has only been 41st in the deep figure since 2023. Since 2023. Pierce continues to connect a high variety option depending on a few Downfield active photos.
Xavier Legette quietly placed the third highest Pwoprr of his career in week 1, and ranked 23rd Leaguewide, while teammate Tetairoa McMillan was on the 15th. Despite a challenging matchup in week 2 against a cardinals defense that led the competition in coverage, Arizona’s Pass Rush remains a concern, ranking on the eighth in-slightest. With a talented receiver duo and a rising Quarterback shake a weather-practiced opener, Carolina profiles as a strong buy-low-offensive on the way to week 2.
As always, not every player will deliver on this list, but several will probably exceed their average PPR from the past three weeks. Some can even have explosive games.
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