How Trump’s Words Moved Bitcoin: From Panic to Confidence in Just 2 Weeks

Data from CryptoQuant shows how Trump’s Chinese rhetoric has driven Bitcoin volatility from panic selling to renewed confidence.

The expected ‘Uptober’ momentum and seasonal bullish expectations of October appear to have faded into the background.

Instead, US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff threats and trade comments towards China took center stage, dictating Bitcoin’s sharp price swings and investor emotions throughout the month.

The emotional rollercoaster of BTC Market

Trump’s China-related rhetoric in October 2025 was echoed in Bitcoin (BTC) price action and on-chain sentiment as the asset remains sensitive to geopolitical risks. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, which measures overall market psychology through unrealized gains and losses, reflected investors’ varying emotions throughout the month. On October 10, when Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, Bitcoin fell 8.4% to around $104,800. At the same time, the NUPL fell below 0.50, a level historically associated with rising fear and profit-taking.

A few days later, as Trump took a softer tone on China, Bitcoin recovered towards the mid-$110,000s, while the NUPL reflected cautious optimism.

However, renewed tensions on October 14, accompanied by new export controls and port fees, eventually led to another sell-off, causing both the BTC price and the NUPL to fall again. Sentiment only began to stabilize after October 24, when news of Trump’s upcoming summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping broke.

Bitcoin climbed above $115,000 and NUPL started to recover. On October 26, reports emerged that Trump might revoke the tariff plan, further boosting confidence, and the NUPL approached 0.52, indicating growing market strength. CryptoQuant points out this market volatility and sentiment swings declared that geopolitical shocks like Trump’s trade threats don’t just shake prices; they also “reshape market sentiment.”

BTC shorts liquidated

As Bitcoin recovered, over-indebted short traders were liquidated. The asset is now hovering above the $114,000 support zone, a level that recently acted as a strong area of ​​buyer defense. According to crypto analyst Ted Pillows, the next major step is to reclaim the $118,000 zone, which has repeatedly served as short-term resistance during October’s choppy trading. One step above this threshold, he suggestedcould pave the way for a new all-time high within the next one to two weeks.

You might also like:

Not everyone shares the growing optimism. Another market expert, Ali Martinez, for example: warned that the asset could soon be under profit-taking pressure as the TD Sequential indicator has shown a sell signal on the daily chart – a tool often used to identify potential trend exhaustion.