Edited excerpts from a chat about Nifty, Nifty Bank prospects, stock ideas and trading strategy:
Nifty ended the week higher despite Thursday’s steep decline. Is 25,400 the major support level that can protect bulls this monthly expiration?
The 25,400 region is important due to the coincidence of many important events, namely a breakout gap, horizontal support and important moving averages. It is no surprise that multiple downward attempts have turned into accumulation points at this intersection. The flag formation allows a vertical rise, but if we stumble again in the region between 25,900 and 26,200 inhabitants, the upward hope will have to be abandoned. Furthermore, given the increase in volatility, we do not see the 25,400 region remaining intact if a repeat attack occurs.
How would you trade the index now that Nifty Bank is doing better? What are the key support and resistance levels to watch out for?
BankNifty continues to show strong upside momentum and remains firmly above the key breakout zone around 59,500. The index remains well supported by the rising moving averages on the weekly chart, indicating a healthy trend structure. Price action has consistently respected higher lows, strengthening bullish control even during short pullbacks. The MACD is in positive territory on the weekly time frame with widening histogram bars, indicating strengthening momentum and room for further upside potential. The RSI is moving above 60, a region usually associated with sustained bullish phases, without yet reaching overbought territory.
Immediate resistance is near 62,800-63,500, and a close above this band could trigger a new leg towards the 65,000 zone. Declines towards 60,000 to 59,500 are likely to generate buying interest, supported by strong volume clusters and previous levels of consolidation.
Even as delivery volumes have cooled from the February 12-13 peak till Thursday, the mix has turned constructive, with PSU strength and rotation towards mid- and large-cap lenders combining to support a buy-on-dips preference for BankNifty in the near term. Overall, the technical structure favors continued upward movement, with any short-term soft period likely to be an opportunity for bulls to strengthen their position.
We have seen a sharp spike in India VIX. Do you predict increasing volatility in the future?
The VIX rose to its highest level since early February, after which we saw volatility decrease and the index rise. The only difference is that the period leading up to the early February surge was dominated by declines, while the current phase is more of a consolidation. This leads to the assumption that normalization of current volatility behavior is more likely than an escalation of current VIX.
Newgen and Netweb were among the biggest risers of the week. What do the charts indicate: profit booking or higher upside potential?
Newgen Software showed a sharp recovery from the 470-500 support band on the strongest volume in months, indicating the stock may have completed a selling phase and is transitioning into early base formation. Momentum signals are improving, with the RSI moving out of oversold territory and the MACD delivering a new bullish crossover below the zero line. Immediate resistance is at 600-650 zones. A closure above this cluster would enhance recovery and open space towards 700-740. On the weekly chart, a positive candle supported by increased volume reinforces a potential bottom attempt. The weekly RSI is curling up and the MACD is flattening, indicating a trend reversal. However, a failure to hold above 500 would delay the bullish setup and expose lower weekly support.Netweb Technologies confirmed a break on the daily time frame with a broad move higher and rising delivery volumes, pushing the stock above the 3,550-3,600 supply zone. Momentum remains constructive with an RSI above 60 and positive MACD growth. As long as the share price remains above 3,500 to 3,525, the short-term structure favors continuation. Resistance develops at 3,700–3,750, above which the move may extend towards 3,900–4,000.
Notably, delivery volumes for Netweb increased by 3x and for Newgen by almost 9x from their respective monthly averages, indicating that strong hands have been accumulating in the advance. We would remain on both unless the main supports gave way.
Share your best trading ideas for the week
KEI (CMP: 4,756)
View: buy
Goal: 4,880
SL: 4,570
KEI has resumed its uptrend on the weekly chart, clearing a multi-month range to close near 4,750. The price is rising above the rising 20- and 50-week averages and the cloud, underscoring the strength of the trends. Momentum is constructive, with the RSI remaining above 60 and rising, while the MACD shows a positive histogram, indicating an improvement in tracking.
Immediate resistance appears around 4,800, then 5,200, ahead of the swing high. On the other hand, it seems that 4,570–4,600 are strong support and could provide short-term support.
The bias remains bullish, while the index is above 4,570 on a closing basis.
TRIVENI (CMP: 385)
View: buy
Goal: 400
SL: 374
Triveni is attempting a trend reversal on the weekly chart after regaining the 200-week SMA near 374 and printing a series of higher lows. The RSI has returned above 50 and is rising, while the MACD has entered a bullish crossover, with the histogram turning positive, indicating the early stages of an upswing. Immediate resistance is at 388-392, followed by 400, and a decisive close above 400 could pave the way to higher highs. Initial support is placed at 374 around the 200-week average, and a sustained break below 374-365 would delay the reversal and expose lower levels.
The bias remains constructive as long as the stock price remains above 374 on a weekly close basis.
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