How the 2026 Blue Jays stack up against last season’s team

How the 2026 Blue Jays stack up against last season’s team

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The Toronto Blue Jays’ once-promising offseason has taken a sour turn after this Bo Bichette’s departure and Kyle Tucker’s decision to join the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s looking increasingly likely that Japanese star Kazuma Okamoto will be the team’s only attacking signing this winter, likely the last big move before the 2026 season kicks off.

That begs the question: On paper, is this team better or worse than the favored group that fell just short against the Dodgers in the 2025 World Series?

Offensively, the Blue Jays’ lineup will be worse without Bichette; he was the team’s best clutch hitter and most consistent producer last season. The team’s swoon in late September when Bichette was injured — where they hit .236 as a group with an 87 wRC+ — was an example of how his presence made everyone else around him better.

According to Jon Heyman, the Blue Jays offered Kyle Tucker a 10-year contract.

There are also some regression candidates in the lineup to worry about. George Springer probably won’t post a .959 OPS again in 2026, and Daulton Varsho probably won’t hit home runs at an Aaron Judge-like pace for a full season if he stays healthy. Another full season of Ernie Clement is on the horizon, and there could be some regression there as well.
Still, there are reasons to believe the Blue Jays will once again field a potent lineup. It feels fitting to have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projecting more than 23 home runs and 84 RBIs after his legendary postseason performance. Okamoto’s strength and bat-to-ball skills should be transferred to the MLB. Anthony Santander can only improve on his terrible 2025 performance.

Ultimately, the Blue Jays will likely be a bit worse offensively this season, but gains in the pitching department could easily offset any losses on that front.

Toronto’s starting rotation to open the 2025 season included Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Bowden Francis. It now projects as Gausman, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and Berríos or Cody Ponce.

This current group has a higher floor and a much higher ceiling. Cease is a strikeout machine with Cy Young on his head. Bieber should be even better with a healthy offseason under his belt. The sky is the limit for Yesavage, even though there will undoubtedly be growing pains. Berríos and Ponce are question marks for different reasons, but can both be effective back-end guys.

In the bullpenis the biggest change from the end of the 2025 season to now Seranthony Domínguez has been replaced by Tyler Rogers. The stats suggest Rogers is the more effective arm, despite his unconventional submarine delivery. The Blue Jays will also have trade deadline acquisition Louis Varland available for a full season.

Of course, the team’s bullpen was hardly its strength last year; a botched save cost them a World Series title. This group’s overall numbers likely won’t be much better than they are in 2025, especially with Jeff Hoffman still entrenched as the closer.

That said, it wouldn’t be ridiculous to suggest that the 2026 Blue Jays seem like a better team on paper than last year’s squad. Meaningful improvements to their starting pitching should help offset any lost offense. However, matches are not played on paper and only time will tell whether this team can recapture the magic of last season.


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