Skippylongstockings proves the best in the Harlan’s Holiday, Gulfstream Photo 2025
James Gazzale
Pace Points are designed to rank horses relative to the field in two critical phases of a race: the first fraction (early pace) and the last fraction (late pace). It is not a prediction of the exact driving order. Instead, it’s a framework that helps visualize the shape of the race before the gates open.
One of the biggest challenges in horse racing handicapping isn’t identifying talent. It’s understanding How a race will likely unfold. That’s where pace points come into play, and the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream Park provided a textbook example of how early and late pace rankings can sharpen that picture.
In the Harlan’s Holiday, early Pace Points rankings suggested a contested pace. Horses like Hold My Bourbon, Con Compania and Skippylongstocking would all be involved early on. That immediately raised an important handicapping question: would the pace collapse, or could one of those frontrunners control the race?
Hold My Bourbon quickly answered some of that question by firing hard from the rail. But Pace Points already hinted at the risk. Although he was ranked very early, his profile suggested limited staying power, and once the breaks clicked into 22-and-change and sub-46 to the half, the writing was on the wall. That kind of pace almost always invites pressure.
On the other side of the equation was Poster, No. 1 in late Pace Points. On paper, he seemed the ideal beneficiary of a strong early pace. And for much of the long run, the race seemed to unfold exactly that way.
But Pace Points also help explain Why the obvious closer doesn’t always get there.
Skippylangkous provided an ideal trip despite a lower late ranking. He stayed within striking range early, avoided excessive ground loss on the turn and launched first. The poster has since been forced wider, a subtle but decisive difference. When horses are evenly matched, ride efficiency is just as important as rough finishing ability.
This is a crucial conclusion: pace points are not a substitute for traditional handicaps. They refine it. In the late rankings, Poster was correctly identified as the strongest finisher. The early rankings correctly showed which horses would set the pace. What ultimately decided the race was how these two elements intersected in real time.
For gamblers, this kind of insight can lead to tighter tickets, fewer unnecessary spreads and a clearer understanding of where the risk actually lies. This is especially valuable in stakes racing, where margins are small and prices are under pressure.
To see how pace points are built up and how you can apply them to your own handicap, visit PastTheWire.com/Pace-Points for more information. You will find detailed explanations and examples like this.
The Harlan’s Holiday did not contradict the Pace Points data, but confirmed it. The numbers told us where the pressure would be, who could reach the finish and where the vulnerability lay. The rest depended on trip, timing and execution.
To discover how Pace Points can improve your race analysis and ticket construction, visit PastTheWire.com/Pace-Points and see how this tool fits into your daily process. And as more races like the Harlan’s Holiday show take place, understanding the pace isn’t about predicting outcomes, it’s about preparing for them.
Learn more about Pace Points and start applying them today at PastTheWire.com/Pace-Points.
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