Despite Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers being reluctant to own Cole Palmer (£10.6m) the ability to score minutes keeps the goals and assists coming.
He played eleven of Chelsea’s last twelve league matches, highlighted by a hat-trick in Gameweek 25 and twelve points against Leeds United a few days later.
So it’s no wonder hundreds of thousands are buying it now. However, is it too late?
After hosting Burnley on Saturday, the Blues’ games will become considerably more difficult.
So in this article we look at how Palmer usually does in the so-called tougher matches.
RECENT SANCTIONS
Let’s first look at the penalty situation. Five of his six recent goals have been penalties, which seems unsustainable. Although that was probably said last time too!
Looking at the underlying statistics, Chelsea’s propensity to receive this may not be a fluke. They are top in terms of take-ons, with only Aston Villa having committed more fouls on the pitch than their 314.
Liam Rosenior’s side rank fifth for touches inside the penalty area (699), although the above teams have only conceded between two and four penalties, compared to their seven.
So from now on we will look at non-penalty figures. And make them every 90 minutes, knowing that they are often handled with care.
PALMER’S NPXG DATA
This season, Palmer is actually underperforming in terms of expected goals without penalties (NPxG), scoring three times instead of 3.73.
Yet none of his goals came against fellow Big Eight teams: Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa.
So far he hasn’t exceeded 0.26 NPxG per 90 from this level.
Looking at the next six opponents after Burnley, Palmer’s five reverse encounters (highlighted in green) totaled 16 points and 1.19 NPxG (0.238 average). He missed the meeting with Arsenal.
The England international was particularly quiet at Newcastle and Man United.
DOES THIS FIT WITH 2024/25?
Last season Palmer played every league match except the away trip to Arsenal. No one in the league had more long shots (63), although he underperformed for xG (15 v 17.27) and NPxG (11 v 13.33).
None of his top eight NPxG per 90 numbers came against the ‘Big Eight’, but had some fun against Brighton and Hove Albion, Wolverhampton Wanderers and relegated duo Southampton and Leicester City.
In thirteen games against the best, he scored two non-penalty goals, three assists and a commendable average of 5.77 points. Still, 10 of these outings came in at 0.33 NPxG per 90 or lower.
In fact, six games against upcoming opponents (Newcastle, Man United, twice Everton, twice Man City) had no more than 0.08.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
The fact that penalties have been awarded is of course good news, and this should not be held against Palmer. Brentfords Igor Thiago (£7.0m) has acquired seven and remains an excellent option.
But Palmer’s open-play numbers aren’t particularly good against stronger teams.
Furthermore, once Champions League games return for Chelsea, there could be some early substitutions.
Well done to the managers who bought Palmer at the right time, but as mentioned in ‘Buy, Keep or Sell’ it’s probably too late to buy him unless you’ve picked up a lot of free transfers and earned the right to short-sell an explosive striker.
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