Bitcoin is trading around $89,200 as a bearish weekly EMA crossover, ETF outflows, FOMC risks, and a rising loss offer are capturing the market’s attention.
Moving average crossover returns
The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed below the 50-week EMA according to a chart shared from analyst Rekt Capital. This pattern has occurred during previous market cycles. Bitcoin followed a similar structure in both 2018 and 2022, plummeting shortly after.
The same crossover is now happening again in early 2026. While BTC remains above $89,000, this setup has not been favorable in recent cycles. It often marked a shift toward slower growth or deeper corrections. Traders are now watching to see if history repeats itself or if the market behaves differently this time.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of more than $147 million on January 27 (according to SoSoValues data). This shift may reflect reduced interest or profit-taking among larger shareholders. ETF outflows have often been accompanied by periods of selling pressure or lower trading momentum.
Analysts are eyeing the $70,000-$75,000 range as a potential support zone if the current price does not hold. Moreover, veteran trader Peter Brandt recently suggested that Bitcoin could fall towards $58,000 to $62,000 if the structure were to break lower.
Macro events can exert pressure
Two major events are scheduled for January 28 that could impact the crypto markets. US crude oil inventory data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision are expected on the same day.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown weakness around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Data from 2025 shows that BTC experienced price declines after seven out of eight FOMC meetings. One of the biggest was a 29% drop after the October 29 announcement. Chartist Ali Martinez wrote,
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The supply at a loss starts to rise
According to CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu, Bitcoin supply is loss-making (%) is trending back up again. In previous cycles, this was one of the first signs of a longer bearish trend.
The numbers remain below full capitulation levels, but the direction of change may be worth watching. Similar shifts occurred in 2014, 2018 and 2022, before the market bottomed out.
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