High-risk zone? Analysts are divided as Bitcoin (BTC) ignores the geopolitical chaos

Analysts say geopolitical shocks have failed to undo the existing bullish short-term and bearish medium-term outlook.

Bitcoin’s response to escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend was limited, even as traditional markets reacted more sharply. BTC fell to around $65,500 on Monday after trading in a volatile range between around $63,000 and $68,000, after markets reacted to rising tensions between the US and Iran and reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike.

Despite the intense, volatile backdrop, market commentators say the conflict hasn’t changed Bitcoin’s trajectory.

High risk zone

In a post on X, Mr. Wall Street declared that ‘nothing changed with the new war’. He said he doesn’t believe the bottom of the cycle is at $60,000. According to him, the cycle bottom will be reached around $45,000 later this year, but only after Bitcoin reaches the $80,000-$85,000 mark for the first time.

The analyst’s outlook is bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term. This indicates that while geopolitical shocks can cause volatility, he does not believe they will negate expectations of a short-term pump followed by a deeper correction phase. Another prominent crypto market commentator, Doctor Profit, also claimed that the war does not change his broader bearish positioning.

He wrote that Bitcoin “remains in an absolute risk area” and that the market has not yet bottomed out.

“The War Doesn’t Change My Bearish Outlook for Crypto and Stocks.”

He also added that he remains completely bearish and that his “big short” has remained open since September. Both analysts, despite differing on the short-term direction, emphasized that the geopolitical escalation has not fundamentally changed their pre-existing market positions.

US-Iran conflict already priced in?

Trader CrypNuevo said the market had already taken into account the conflict between the US and Iran last week. He went on to explain that markets cannot fall much further because the event was largely expected, but pointed to uncertainty over the duration of the war and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. According to them, stock futures, which Bitcoin typically tracks, are likely to open negative and possibly rebound once de-escalation talks pick up steam.

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They said a prolonged conflict is unlikely, citing concerns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would raise oil prices and U.S. CPI inflation, something they don’t expect to happen. The strategy is to wait for Monday’s stock market reaction. So if there is a sharp sell-off, they would leave Bitcoin hovering around $61,000-$60,000 ahead of de-escalation news. On the other hand, if there is only a slight decline, sideways move or a pump, they would delay entering a long position until later in the week.