The Supreme Court’s landmark ruling that struck down much of President Donald Trump’s tariffs could mean savings for consumers in the coming months, economists say.
But the savings could evaporate if Trump implements a new round of import taxes, as he vowed to do at an impassioned news conference hours after the Supreme Court’s decision was announced.
If relief is provided, consumers can expect to see the most impact on categories of items most affected by these tariffs, including glassware and tableware, furniture and a wide range of household items.
Trump’s tariffs have driven up the prices of many imported items, an effect visible in the January inflation report. The price of household furniture and supplies increased by 3.8% between January 2025 and January 2026. Furniture and bedding prices have increased by 4%. Prices for crockery and cutlery increased by 5%.
“We think tariffs have pushed up consumer goods prices by about 2% overall,” said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Will the tariff ruling lead to lower consumer prices?
Where will prices go from here? Much depends on whether the Trump administration will respond to the Supreme Court’s ruling with new tariffs, using a different legal authority than the one the court struck down.
At a press conference hours after the ruling, Trump vowed to find a new legal basis to impose tariffs.
“We have alternatives,” Trump said. “Great alternatives. There could be more money.”
Trump then said he would sign a new executive order that would impose a 10% “global tariff” on top of import taxes that remain in place after the ruling. He cited a federal law that allows temporary import taxes in response to trade deficits.
Even before Trump spoke, many observers predicted that the president would look for a way to restore his tariffs.
“I would bet that companies are still going to pay tariffs, just under a different statute,” said Alex Jacquez, head of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank.
If the Trump administration does not impose new tariffs, a scenario that now seems unlikely, “it does mean that we could see some reversals in the coming months from the tariff-related price increases we saw last year,” Pearce said. “Consumers could see a little bit more benefit to their net income.”
To what extent have the tariffs increased consumer prices?
There is a fierce debate about the extent to which tariffs have already driven up prices.
A February report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that U.S. consumers and businesses paid nearly 90% of the cost of Trump’s tariffs through the end of 2025.
That research struck a chord. A top White House economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, denounced the report and suggested its authors needed to be “disciplined.”
Another analysis from the nonprofit Tax Foundation found that Trump’s rates amounted to a $1,000 tax increase per household in 2025. Households were expected to pay an additional $1,300 in 2026.
That estimate could change in light of the court’s new ruling. Yale’s Budget Lab suggests that consumer prices will rise 0.6% in the short term, costing the average American household about $800. Without the Supreme Court ruling, prices would rise twice as fast, according to the Budget Lab.
Whatever their impact, the tariffs have not caused the inflation crisis that many observers feared. The overall annual inflation rate for January was a modest 2.4%.
The Supreme Court’s ruling lowers the effective U.S. rate from 12.8% to 8.3%, Pearce estimates.
Yale’s Budget Lab estimates the new rate figure at 9.1%. According to the Budget Lab, this is still the highest U.S. rate since 1946, excluding last year’s policy changes.
The Supreme Court’s ruling does not apply to all tariffs Trump issued in 2025. For example, it excludes tariffs on certain specific industrial sectors, such as steel and motor vehicles.
Where do rates still apply?
With the court’s ruling, the remaining U.S. tariffs — which have not been eliminated — “fall most heavily on metals, vehicles and electronics,” the Budget Lab reports.
Thousands of U.S. importers could soon receive refunds for some or all of the estimated $150 billion they paid in tariffs.
It’s hard to imagine how these refunds could reach consumers, Pearce and other rate experts said. If refunds are issued, they will likely go to the importers who paid the taxes.
Some companies “have already said they will increase prices this year because of the rates paid last year,” Jacquez said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Here’s what the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling means for consumer prices
Reporting by Daniel de Visé, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
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