According to Shenoy, the Nifty could see a sharp rally, possibly rising 20% to reach the 30,000 mark before next Diwali. “There will be low frenzied momentum on the upside, causing people to question everything they know about valuations,” the market veteran said.
On the commodities front, Shenoy warns of a significant correction in precious metals, predicting that gold could fall more than 20% from its recent peak, with silver likely to follow a similar path without “no meaningful basis,” he says. “If you’re long on gold, I hope I’m wrong,” Shenoy notes, acknowledging the speculative nature of the forecast.
Globally, Shenoy foresees a U.S. recession coupled with persistent inflation, which could limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to aggressively cut rates. He adds that the economic slowdown could force Washington to reduce some of the trade tariffs it imposed during the recent US-China trade tensions, although the broader fallout from these trade disputes will continue to shape global markets.
For India, Shenoy expects domestic capital to play an increasingly important role in driving growth. He predicts that Indian investors will invest more in mutual funds and equities, with foreign flows having less impact on the country’s broader growth story. This, he said, could help India achieve real GDP growth of around 7% next year, with nominal growth exceeding 10%.
On the currency front, Shenoy expects the rupee could weaken to 90 at some point but expects it to recover to a more comfortable range of 80-85 by Diwali 2026. Shenoy’s forecasts paint a picture of a dynamic year ahead – one of high volatility, sharp market moves and a rebalancing of domestic and global economic forces.Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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