The Toronto Maple Leafs lost an overtime game 4-3 to the New York Islanders on Saturday, and in the short term, that’s the part that stings. Points matter right now, and Toronto doesn’t have many left. But every now and then a game leaves something behind that will outlast the outcome. This one did it.
Auston Matthews hit 20 and 421 on the same night
Auston Matthews scored his 20th goal of the season and the 421st of his career. That was the goal he needed pass Mats Sundin as top scorer in Maple Leafs history. When you think about it, that’s a pretty amazing thought. The all-time goalscorer for one of the Original Six franchises is just 28 years old.
Sundin’s name has been at the top for a long time, untouched, almost assumed to be permanent. Matthews didn’t just get it; he passed it before he turned 29. What next for Matthews? How far can his goal-scoring ability extend?
Now that Matthews has reached the top, things have changed
But once a player gets there, the conversation changes. The question stops being about the record he just broke and instead starts to lean forward. How high can Matthews’ goals go?
Matthews scored 421 goals in 664 games. That number is more important than it sounds like it should be. Very few players in NHL history have scored that many goals so early, and even fewer have done so while missing as much time as Matthews has over the years. Injuries, shortened seasons, weird schedules – it all added up to totals that still looked historic.
The easy comparison is Alex Ovechkin. While that’s fair, Ovechkin is a completely different story than Matthews. Ovechkin scored 422 goals in the same age category, in slightly more games. Matthews is there. That doesn’t mean he is becoming Ovechkin. Ovechkin is a physical phenomenon, but not in the modern, fitness-obsessed sense.
He has broken the usual rules about aging, durability and volume. Most players don’t do that. Most can’t do that. In that he is old-fashioned, a throwback to the days when hockey players didn’t train all year and arrived in impeccable shape.
Matthews just has to be Matthews to become special
But Matthews doesn’t have to be Ovechkin to end up in a special place. He scored at a 50-goal rate for most of his career, without the benefit of full seasons. When he joined this year, he had only played more than 70 games five times in nine seasons. Yet he continues to pile up goals. With just more luck, he would probably already be past the 500 goal mark.
From here the math starts to get awkward in a good way. Six hundred goals feels more like a checkpoint than a caress. If his health holds up, there is a great interest for seven hundred. And if only his scoring percentage becomes softer instead of collapsing with age, the numbers drift into places that usually feel reserved for all-time lists, and not active players.
Matthews isn’t hunting ghosts yet
None of this needs to be done hastily. Matthews isn’t hunting ghosts yet. He’s still busy winning games, carrying a team and defining his own era in Toronto. Now that he owns the Maple Leafs’ all-time scoring record, it’s fair to look ahead a little.
How high can Matthews ultimately rise in the all-time NHL scoring conversation?
Related: Maple Leafs are playing better, but the standings tell a different story
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