Home inventory
The best story about housing in 2025 was the stock growth, which looks closer to what a normal housing market looks like. After the extreme sellers market that followed COVID-19, we experienced unhealthy housing market conditions at the end of 2020. At the beginning of 2021 I was talking about the need for higher mortgage interest to cool things, but that didn’t happen. At the beginning of 2022 the housing market was wild unhealthy. So far, 2025 is the healthiest year for the housing market since the Pandemie! That said, the stock channels have recently changed.
The housing market began to shift in mid -June and the stock growth delayed considerably to the point that our stock data showed a decrease in August for the first time in many years, which is not the usual pattern. At the beginning of August I believed that we had not yet seen the peak in the inventory before 2025 and I expected that the inventory would grow above recent highlights. So far that has not happened.
Moreover, we are approaching the seasonal expiry period, which has happened in October and November in recent years. On a percentage basis we recently reached a peak with a growth of 33% on an annual basis and now we run at 20%.
New offers and price percentages
A reach of 80,000 to 100,000 new entries every week during the seasonal peak months should be standard for this data line, but it is not normal since the pandemic. We have slowly worked our way back to the normal inventory and before 2025 I expected that we would receive at least 80,000 weekly new entries during the high seasonal months.
So I was pretty excited when we saw more than 80,000 offers printed at the end of May. However, I did not expect that this would be the peak for the year. Since then we have gradually decreased and we are now working on the usual seasonal decline. This new statement situation had influenced market dynamics in mid-June, which resulted in fewer sellers in June, July and August-in particular when the mortgage interest rate began to fall.
The price percentage data has recently been stabilized and have been taken somewhat.
Housing question
In the field of demand, we have sufficient data to prove that when mortgage interest goes under 6.64% and go to 6%, the future -oriented data will improve with positive weekly data, comparable to what we have seen at the end of 2022 and the middle part of 2024. The key is knowing where to look.
Purchase request data recently had its best seven weeks of the year – all when the mortgage interest rate dropped below 6.64%. The trick with purchase apps is that you need 12-14 weeks of positive details from week to week, similar to what we had in 2022 and 2024. That has not happened yet, but in the last seven weeks this has shown the data:
- 6 positive weeks
- 1 negative week
- 7 consecutive weeks of double digits year after year of growth
If we can get positive data from week to week six to eight weeks, in addition to the growth of the year that we have experienced, the timeline could be the timeline for this at the end of October or the beginning of November.
Here are the data for 2025. Note, we have had good growth on an annual basis, but the week to week was turbulent until the last seven weeks.
- 18 Positive lectures
- 12 Negative measurements
- 6 PLAT PRINTS
- 33 Right weeks of positive data on an annual basis
- 20 consecutive weeks of double -digit growth year after year
Note that purchasing calling data takes 30-90 days before it touches the sales data. If we can string positive weekly data for six to eight weeks, we should see growth in the existing sales data of the home. Our weekly current sales data has shown slight growth in recent months after year. It usually takes 30-60 days for this data to reach the existing home report.
Conclusion
Next week we will go back to the standard format of our weekend tracker. This weekend I wrote a separate article about mortgage interest and the 10-year proceeds, so that I could concentrate on the most important statistics to look at while we close the books on 2025 and prepare for 2026.
The existing home sales will come this week, and I do not expect that I will see a lot happening there, because we still have not had no 12-14 weeks of positive data from the weekly purchase apps.
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