Let’s dive in and handicap all three races:
Gotham (G3)
There are a few proven horses registered in the Gotham, including number 1 Balboa (6-1), a speedster who rode respectably when taking third in the Remsen (G2) and second in the Jerome S. In the Remsen he was beaten only by the next Risen Star (G2) winner Paladin and the next Sam F. Davis S. conqueror Renegade.
But my first choice in the Gotham is a horse that has only run once: #6 Iron honor (6-5). Chad Brown’s trainee caught my attention when he debuted in a six-furlong special weight at Aqueduct on December 13. After tracking a runaway leader in second place, he finished cleanly on the track to prevail by 1 1/2 lengths, earning a Brisnet Speed rating of 99 and a Beyer speed figure of 95.
The form of Iron Honor’s debut victory has continued strongly. The runner-up, Crossingthechannel, returned to win his next start in an identical six-furlong special weight. Third place, number 5 Right to party (8-1), finished nine lengths behind Iron Honor, but won his next start in a one-mile special weight and is entered in the Gotham.
Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist out of a mare by 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) conqueror Blame, Iron Honor is bred to enjoy running over a mile. A series of workouts on the slow training track at Payson Park should set Iron Honor up for a strong sophomore debut, so I expect him to live up to expectations and prevail in the Gotham.
Fountain of Youth (G2)
To me, the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth is almost unfathomable. Many of the top contenders have questions to answer:
* #7 Napoleon Solo (7-2) hasn’t raced since October, when he set blistering pace fractions of :22.53, :44.24 and 1:07.88 en route to a 6 1/2-length victory in the one-mile Champagne (G1). This was a huge run, but the rest of Champagne’s form hasn’t held up particularly well, and stretching out about two turns after the layoff is a meaningful obstacle for Napoleon Solo to overcome.
* #6 Head Wallabee (9-2) won his debut in a fast seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park last month, beating third-place Sam F. Davis S. The Puma by 1 1/2 lengths. Chief Wallabee has shown promise, but he hasn’t proven himself after two innings, and this is his first start against winners.
* #10 Loneliness dude (5-1) has not been challenged in three starts, including decisive victories in the Inaugural S. and Swale S. But he has yet to run beyond seven furlongs, and he faces several other speed horses, which could threaten his chances of staying at 1 1/16 miles.
* #1 Jackson hole (8-1) has gone 2-for-2 for trainer Todd Pletcher, notably beating a $125,000 1 1/16-mile optional claimer at Fair Grounds. But he has yet to run particularly fast in terms of Beyer speed figures or Brisnet speed ratings, and horses drawn in interior posts have struggled over the Gulfstream dirt this race.
The result is that I am left with number 4 Commandment (2-1) as my first choice. Last time out he closed from fourth (three lengths off the pace) and defeated the one-mile Mucho Macho Man S. on Gulfstream by 6 3/4 lengths, earning a respectable 91 Beyer that fits well in the Fountain of Youth field.
The tractability of the commandments is positive. There is an abundance of pace in the Fountain of Youth field, so Commandment can settle in behind the speed under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. before launching a (hopefully outdoors) rally to prevail.
Rebels (G2)
The 1 1/16 mile Rebel is another race that requires logical contenders to answer questions.
#4 Blackout time (8-5), second in a deep edition of the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), returns from a five-month layoff with just five recent workouts under his belt. #2 Litmus test (7-2) is consistent and coming off a win in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), but he finished 2 1/4 lengths behind Blackout Time in the Breeders’ Futurity. #6 Strategic risk (12-1) raced at a favorable pace in the Smarty Jones S., but failed when finishing 10th in the Southwest (G3) last time. #7 Silent tactics (9-2) came from far back to crush Southwest by 3 1/4 lengths but benefited from a contested pace.
I could be persuaded to support any of these four, or even #10 Soldier N Diplomat (10-1), second in the Southwest after staying much closer to the pace than Silent Tactic. But I think outside the box and choose #3 Class president (10-1) at the top.
Class President, a powerfully bred son of Uncle Mo out of the Quality Road mare Top Quality, debuted in a maiden one-mile special weight at Gulfstream Park, where he paced before taking over to beat next-place winner Easterly by 3 1/4 lengths. He then reduced distance and moved up in class for the seven-furlong Swale S., challenging the aforementioned Fountain of Youth entrant Solitude Dude before weakening to finish second by 3 3/4 lengths.
Class President fits well into the Rebel field from a Beyer speed and Brisnet speed rating standpoint and would enjoy stretching around two turns. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Rebel twice with Malagacy and Magnum Moon, who have also delivered two starts apiece in Florida, so Class President is following a familiar path and looks overpriced with its morning line odds of 10-1.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in this week’s Kentucky Derby qualifiers?
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