US President Donald Trump | Photocredit: Aaron Schwartz
The growth of IT services from India can slow down to less than 4 percent due to new risks of the sharp increase in H-1B visa costs, according to an Emkay report.
The report noted that it had previously estimated a 5 percent growth in FY26 and a CAGR of 7 percent in the next five years.
It stated: “Indian IT/software gross/net export was $ 181 billion/160 billion in FY25 and we had adopted 5 percent growth in the Netto IT export of IT services for FY26E, with an evolution of 7 percent Cagr for the following 5 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent, depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent, depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent depending on sub-4 percent
The IT and software exports of India was $ 181 billion gross and $ 160 billion net in FY25. Global Capability Centers (GCCs) already contribute more than USD 65 billion in gross export.
The report noted that GCC evolution and acceptance of new growth models by IT companies will be crucial in shaping the sector’s prospects.
According to experts, the short -term impact can be limited on income and margins. However, if the higher reimbursements can disrupt traditional export models.
Madhavi Arora-chief Economist, Emkay Global stated: “The impact in the short term can be limited on IT income/margins. If it is sustainable, it can, however, be indian IT exhibitions, the traditional models of companies, the traditional models of the India Supples, the Project margins.
The US has recently increased H-1B visa costs to $ 100,000 for new visas, of the earlier reach of $ 1,500-4,000. The change does not affect existing visa holders or extensions, but can weigh heavily from the Indian IT companies that depend on new visas on location.
Nilesh Shah, MD Kotak Mahindra AMC stated: “American limitations on H 1 B visum will damage Indians more than Indian IT services. We must create ecosystem in India, so that our talent does not have to go abroad. Handic Korean employees will change the American economy of the time of Visie Visa.
Over time, companies can try to compensate for the pressure by shifting more delivery Offshore, although risks can rise further if the proposed Hire ACT is assumed.
Published on September 22, 2025
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