The other two Derby preps are the $1 million Southwest Stakes (G3). Oaklawn Park and the $200,000 Withers Stakes Aqueduct racecoursewill not take place this week due to bitterly cold temperatures that forced cancellations of entire cards at multiple tracks in the eastern half of the United States. The Southwest has been postponed until February 6. A new date for the Withers has not yet been announced.
In any case, Mother Nature ensured that Florida was hit by this arctic blast. High temperatures for Saturday afternoon in Hallandale Beach, Florida, are forecast to reach the upper 60s. There is a chance of showers.
With or without rain, the Holy Bull, which offers Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis to the top five finishers, will be in the prep spotlight.
A field of nine is entered for the 1 1/16-mile dirt race, although up to seven three-year-olds are likely to start. Based in California Butane has been scratched due to a flight cancellation, and Game for it will likely scratch ahead of the Feb. 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes Tampa Bay Downs.
Pin Oak Studs Incredible back in action for the first time since winning the Street Sense Stakes (G3) on October 26 Churchill Downsis the only existing ranked winner in the lineup, though he is not assured of favoritism, especially after three months on the sidelines. He carries a heavy weight of 124 pounds and faces expected opposition at 4-6 pounds each. He earned a 94 Equibase Speed Figure and 82 Beyer Speed Figure in the latter’s rally, winning the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense in 1:44.67.
Several rivals have outpaced Incredibolt, including Gunner And Almost although they all did that while sprinting.
Cannoneer wins at Churchill Downs
St. Elias Stable and Stonestreet Stables’ Cannoneer ran a 99 ESF and a 90 Beyer Speed Figure in lightning-fast Virgins at 7 furlongs in 1:21.63 at Churchill Downs on Nov. 29 during one of the “Stars of Tomorrow” programs.
Inaugurated in 2005 by then-Churchill Downs racing secretary Doug Bredar, the Stars of Tomorrow program has produced more than 50 Grade 1 winners, including Kentucky Derby winners, since its inception. Sovereignty (2025), Mystical Daan (2024), Mandaloun (2021), and Super saver (2010). Churchill shows two Stars of Tomorrow cards every fall.
The Brad Cox-trained Cannoneer made his second start after a speed duel and fell to third in his debut at Churchill Downs. The Brad Cox-trained Cannoneer showed professionalism in not becoming overly aggressive or rattled by a loose horse that released its rider at the start. The In mischief Colt led everyone with riders on their backs from start to finish en route to a 7 1/4-length victory under Irad Ortiz Jr., who returns to the irons on Saturday.
Cannoneer is a talented colt, although the distance in distance adds an element of uncertainty. Not all lightly raced three-year-olds transfer their sprint form to a course with two bends. To remind Patch Adams another Cox-trained son of Into Mischief, from last year. He broke his first at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old in 2024 running 7 furlongs in 1:20.77 before running below crowd expectations in the 2025 Southwest Stakes and the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby (G3), both at 1 1/16 miles. He then returned to form when reduced to one turn and became a double Grade 1 winner in 7-furlong matches last summer.
The conditions of the Holy Bull suit Cannoneer’s fast style. 1 1/16 mile races at Gulfstream end on what is typically the sixteenth pole over the 1 1/8 mile dirt oval.
The BH Maiden Watch qualifier has a potential stallion pedigree, namely from Spendthrift Farm’s seven-time leading overall sire Into Mischief out of the Malibu Moon mare Catch the moon mother of graded stakes winners Girvin , Midnight Bourbon , Tense and locked And Pirate punch .
No wonder he sold for $1.75 million at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, where Monique Delk, executive director of racehorse development for St. Elias Stable, signed to purchase him from the Summerfield consignment. He now rides for Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Stable and breeder Stonestreet Stables, managed by Barbara Banke.
Centennial Farms’ Nearly brings established form from Gulfstream Park to the Holy Bull, having claimed two local victories following a debut sixth at Aqueduct Racetrack. The first of those against maidens came at 6 furlongs, and the second at a first level allowance, opposition being claimed at 7 furlongs.
Slammed at the start when another rival came sideways out of the gate at him on his last start, the son of Not this time recovered to track the leaders from three lengths off the pace before reeling in the opposition. He led the way in the early stretch and completed his final furlong in a fast time: 12.32. His final time of 1:22.88 earned him a 92 ESF and a Holy Bull best 97 Beyer Speed Figure.
His fast finish suggests he is a worthy candidate for a stretch, although expectations are tempered by his mother, Ib Prospecting after taking her two wins with rallies in sprints.
Other elements of his pedigree, including his broodmare sire Mineshaft indicate some endurance influences.
“All indications are that (two innings) should be in his favor,” Hall of Fame coach Todd Pletcher said. “He has always trained as a horse that wanted more distance, and he has the pedigree to do that, so we are excited to expand on him.”
A two-time Derby winner, Pletcher has also won the Holy Bull twice, winning the race for the first time in 2012 with Algorithms and half a dozen years later he added a second Audible in 2018. The latter repeated in the Florida Derby (G1) before finishing in third place To justify And Good magic in the Kentucky derby.
Not This Time, who is listed for $250,000 at Taylor Made Stallions in Kentucky, was the second leading sire of 2025 behind Into Mischief. In recent years Sibelius And Tooth burn became Class 1-winning sprinters for the stallion, while others such as Epicenter And Until the Mark achieved success at the highest level on routes. Sibelius and Epicenter excelled on dirt, Cogburn and Up to the Mark on grass.
Another well-performing son of Not This Time, Next turned into a standout dirt marathoner in races up to 1 3/4 miles.
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