MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Jan 20 (IPS) – In December, the dust settled on Guinea’s first presidential elections since the military took power in a 2021 coup. General Mamady Doumbouya remained in power after receiving 87 percent of the votes. But the outcome was never in doubt: this was not a democratic milestone; it was the culmination of Guinea’s failed transition to civilian rule.
Doumbouya has successfully performed an act of political alchemy, turning a military autocracy into an electoral autocracy. By systematically dismantling the opposition, silencing the press and rewriting laws that suit his ambitions, he has ensured that he protects his grip on power with a thin veil of electoral legitimacy.
The architecture of autocracy
The path to this moment was paved with precision. In April 2025, Doumbouya announced a constitutional referendum, a move that may have looked like it would signal the beginning of the end of military rule. But it was something completely different. In June, Doumbouya was further centralized control by creating a new Directorate-General for Elections. This body, placed firmly under the thumb of the Ministry of Territorial Administration, reversed previous attempts to establish an independent electoral institute.
The constitution was drafted in the shadows of the National Transitional Council, the junta-appointed legislative body. Although early drafts reportedly included safeguards against lifetime presidencies, these were abolished before the election final text reaches the public. The result was a document that ended the ban on junta members from running for office, extended the presidential term from five to seven years, and granted the president the power to appoint one-third of the newly created Senate.
When the referendum was held on September 21, it became a de facto rule. Official figures claimed 89 percent support with a turnout of 86 percent, figures that defied the reality of a widespread opposition boycott and a palpable lack of public enthusiasm.
A climate of fear
Immediately a general ban on protests Those who dared to challenge the junta’s controlled transition, in place since May 2022, have faced violence from security forces. Security forces arrived on January 6, 2025 at least three people killedincluding two children, during demonstrations called by the opposition coalition Forces Vives de Guinée.
The political landscape was further clarified through administrative and judicial means. In October 2024, the government dissolved more than fifty political parties. By August 2025, major opposition groups such as the Rally of the People of Guinea had been suspended. Key challengers, including former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, remain in exile, while others, including Aliou Bah, have been sentenced to prison – in Bah’s case for alleged insulting Doumbouya.
The atmosphere of fear has been reinforced by the brutal crackdown on the media. Guinea fell 25 places in the World Press Freedom Index 2025, the biggest decline of the year. Independent media have had their licenses revoked and journalists arrested. Those who still work have learned to practice strict self-censorship to avoid becoming the next target. This meant that when voters went to the polls, there was no one to provide diverse perspectives, scrutinize the process, investigate irregularities, or hold authorities to account.
Contagion of coups
Guinea is not an outlier. Since 2020, a contagion of coups has spread through Africa, with military takeovers on the horizon Burkina Faso, Chad, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mali, Niger And Sudan. In both cases, the script was the same: military leaders seize power and promise to “correct” the failures of the previous regime, only to break their promises of a return to civilian rule.
Guinea is now the third country in this recent wave to transition from a military dictatorship to an electoral autocracy. It follows in the footsteps of Chad, where Mahamat Idriss Déby emerged victorious in May 2024 after the suspected murder of his main opponent, and Gabon, where General Brice Oligui Nguema won the 2025 elections with a reported 90 percent of the vote.
The international community does little. Doumbouya routinely ignored the deadlines and sanctions of the Economic Community of West African States, which once boasted a ‘zero tolerance’ policy towards coupsand no consequences followed. The African Union and the United Nations raised rhetorical concerns, but their warnings were not accompanied by tangible diplomatic or economic consequences.
The world’s willingness to continue business as usual while Doumbouya navigates a false transition sends a dangerous message to other would-be autocrats, in the region and beyond.
Democracy denied
When Doumbouya seized power in 2021, he was greeted with a degree of cautious optimism. His predecessor, Alpha Condé, had controversially amended the constitution to secure a third term, amid violent protests and allegations of corruption and fraud. Doumbouya promised to resolve matters but instead became a mirror image of the man he deposed, using the same tactics of constitutional reform and repression to secure his power.
The statistics from the December elections – an 87 percent victory on an 80 percent turnout – do not reflect a real mandate, but rather a vacuum: with no independent media to scrutinize the process and no viable opposition allowed to run, the elections were a technicality.
The prospects for real democracy in Guinea appear slim. Doumbouya secured a seven-year mandate through elections that eliminated essential infrastructure necessary for democracy. In the absence of stronger international pressure and tangible support for Guinean civil society, Guinea faces long-term authoritarian rule behind a democratic facade, with bleak human rights prospects.
Ines M. Pousadela is CIVICUS head of research and analysis, co-director and writer for Citizen lens and co-author of Report on the state of civil society. She is also professor of comparative politics at the University of Amsterdam ORT University Uruguay.
For interviews or more information, please contact[email protected]
© Inter Press Service (20260120180712) — All rights reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service
#Guineas #path #electoral #autocracy