Grim future for Queensland renters after 2032 Olympics – realestate.com.au

Rising rents are set to tighten their stranglehold on the state well beyond the 2032 Olympics, with data showing renters in about 250 Queensland house or apartment markets will be paying more than $1000 a week within a decade.

An exclusive analysis of PropTrack’s market trend data found the average Greater Brisbane renter would be paying an extra $200 per week by 2035, due to continued razor-thin vacancy rates and a rising population.

The average rental price for a house in Brisbane would rise from $650 to $852, and for units from $640 to $839.

A suburban breakdown showed that renters in many city postcodes would pay much more, peaking at $1572 in inner-city New Farm and Bulimba, then Ascot ($1524), Hendra, Pullenvale, Brookfield and Tennyson (all $1441) and Teneriffe ($1409).

Outside Brisbane, even bigger rent increases were expected for the beach strips of the Gold and Sunshine Coast, reaching between $1800 and $1900 in Broadbeach, Bundall, Tallebudgera, Tallai, Clear Island Waters and Castaways Beach.

A total of 244 home or unit markets were forecast to record rents of $1,000 or higher.

The analysis was based on a varied forecast of the consumer price index (CPI), which would decline from 3.6 percent in 2026, as forecast by SQM Research, to 2.6 percent in 2029.

This nuanced approach has been responsible for the unusual economic circumstances of the past decade, with skewed migration rates due to the pandemic.

SQM Research Director Louis Christopher

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A flat CPI forecast of 3.6 percent revealed a worst-case scenario of as many as more than 400 markets with rents of $1,000 or more per week, reaching $2,065 in Broadbeach.

The data also showed the cheapest post-Games markets, with rent for a unit in Kooralbyn, Logan still under $400 in ten years.

Units in Darra, in the west of the city, followed at $524 per week, up from $400 in 2025.

Across all regions, homes in Ayr, Blackall, Miles and Barcaldine were all expected to rent for less than $450.

SQM Research founder Louis Christopher said larger rental markets have historically been closely aligned with the CPI, reaching almost 2.6 per cent before the pandemic, in line with the Reserve Bank’s inflation target.

$650/week: 644 Innisfail Japoon Rd, Currajah

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He predicts rents in Australia’s major capital cities will rise by about $10,000 a year by 2035, despite 180,000 new homes being delivered nationwide by 2026.

“If you have the opportunity to come in as a first home buyer, you should look at it seriously,” Mr Christopher said.

Antonia Mercorella, CEO of the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ), said Queensland was the fastest growing state economy and was attracting strong international and interstate migration.

“With the Olympic Games on the horizon and the associated supporting infrastructure, Queensland’s reputation as a great place to live is only expected to grow,” she said.

While continued government support would ideally help more people buy their own home, the expansion of Build to Rent (BTR) programs could significantly boost housing construction in densely populated areas, with Queensland housing more renters than the national average.

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella

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“The BTR model could have a quite serious impact on supply in the rental market, housing a large number of tenants and their families, and certainly at a faster pace than what the development of individual detached homes can do,” Ms Mercorella said.

“Over the next decade we could also see a number of significant societal shifts that include greater family formation, multi-generational living, greater suburban housing density and greater housing diversity – including smaller properties rather than the popular ‘McMansions’ that Australia is known for.”

The bleak rental outlook was reflected in Cotality’s Housing Affordability Report, published this week, which showed the share of income needed to rent would reach a record high by 2025.

$510/week: 9 Outlook St, Waterford West

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Eliza Owens, head of research at Cotality, said both buying and renting had reached “unsustainable levels” for many Australians, while huge capital gains had widened the growing divide between property owners and non-owners.

Nationally, renters now spent 33.4 percent of their income on rent, putting them in the realm of ‘rental stress’ and significantly higher than the 20-year average.

Regional Queensland was particularly hard hit, with 39 percent of income needed to rent.

Average rents in the regions rose by 7.6 percent in the year to September, while the increase in income was relatively small at 2.6 percent.

Ms Owen said the sharp decline is due to rental housing affordability driven by surging post-pandemic demand, fueled by record low interest rates and high migration rates, coupled with a critical shortage of housing supply due to ongoing construction issues and planning delays.

$1,500/week: 50 Macrozamia Dr, Clagiraba

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“In short, the past five years have combined extraordinary demand factors with supply constraints, creating an extraordinary rise in both home values ​​and rental prices,” she said.

Ben Kingsley, chairman of the Property Investors Council of Australia, advised landlords to increase rents by 4 to 5 percent while keeping vacancy rates low.

“If governments continue to raise taxes and raise costs, we will go even higher and recommend 5 to 6 percent,” Kingsley said.

“And we think this is a very reasonable response to achieve a return on our investment that we are not currently getting.”

PICA chairman Ben Kingsley advised investors to increase rents to cover their costs

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The 2025 PICA survey found that 65 per cent of members had passed on less than 10 per cent of the extra costs they had faced over the past year, with Mr Kingsley warning that investors would eventually sell if interest rates fell too low, further starving the supply market.

Ms Mercorella said: “Rents will always reflect market conditions, but they are also closely linked to the housing sales market and the position of individual investors to cover the mortgage and absorb associated holding costs.”