“We expect that the oil surplus will be larger and on average 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 Q4 (up to and including) 2026 Q4, resulting in an increase of nearly 800 million barrel in the worldwide shares at the end of 2026,” said the American investment bank in a customer bill on Tuesday.
It estimated that stored oil in the Member States of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will explain a third of the total worldwide shares or 270 million barrels in 2026. In combination with a reduced demand in OECD countries, this said that this will lower the real value of Brent from the current Midden $ 70.
Goldman said that Brent prices will probably remain near Forward contracts near 2025, but next year will fall under those contracts while accelerating the increase in the OECD shares.
However, it said that potential acceleration in the growth of Chinese shares up to 0.8 million barrels per day of 0.4 million barrels per day in the year to date would increase the Brent average of 2026 by $ 6 per barrel versus the bank’s basic line to $ 62.
Brent Raw Futures contracts acted on Wednesday about $ 67 per barrel in early Asian trade. West -Texas Intermediaire Raw Futures contracts traded at $ 63.
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