Tonight’s NHL game at the Scotiabank Saddledome features a few clubs with different trajectories as they enter the 2025-2026 season. Us Winnipeg Jets started the year with an opening night loss, but has since posted four straight wins for a 4-1-0 record. The opposition tonight, the Calgary flameshave done almost the exact opposite… winning their opener 4-3 in a shootout before dropping five games in a row to a 1-5-0 record.
The Jets’ one-game road trip begins with a central start time of 8:30 p.m., where Winnipeg’s perfect road record lies (2-0-0) will compete against Calgary’s poor home record (0-2-0). Despite the big differences in the standings so far, the advanced stats say the teams have scored similar expected goals, Corsi and Fenwick numbers. The deciding factor was the club’s finishing touches… with the Jets ranking in the top 3 in actual goals percentage in the NHL at 63.64%, while the Flames have the worst rating at 28.57% (as well as the worst shooting percentage of 6.9%).
I know Winnipeg is still missing some key players, but between the win-loss column and special teams successes, the Jets have put up some concerning numbers. Here are the True Northers stats for 5v5 play in the limited action so far:
xG (all): 46.84% (24th in the NHL)
xG (5on5): 42.86% (31st in the NHL)
Actual G (all): 63.64% (3rd in the NHL)
Actual G (5on5): 54.55% (10th in the NHL)
Withdrawal Rate: 17.95% (1st in the NHL)
PIM taken: 58% (2nd most in the NHL)
Save%: 92.11% (3rd in the NHL)
Considering that expected goals at 5-on-5 stats are a key indicator of potential playoff success, it’s downright concerning to see the Jets putting up sub-par numbers. Last season, on their way to an eventual President’s Trophy, Winnipeg finished in the top 10 in xG% and still couldn’t make a real long run in the postseason… so this doesn’t raise any hope that they can break that wall this season. Besides the fact that our hockey team took way too many penalties early this year, the Jets’ shooting percentage is unsustainable. This season’s second-place club, the New Jersey Devils, is shooting a whopping 5% less often, so the lack of shots on opposing goaltenders will start to hurt Winnipeg when shooting success returns to normal levels (team shot 11.87% last year).
But maybe all those bad omens will be erased when you become a captain Adam Lowry (skating in a full-contact jersey), Dylan Samberg (skating with wrist in plaster), and Cole Perfetti (just returned to the ice and apparently looked agile) yield? They will certainly be improved…but by how much? We will have to wait and see…
Now former 1st round draft pick Brad Lambert will make his NHL debut this year as the coaching staff continues to look for a combination that will make the middle six work consistently well. With the attachment of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor& Gabriel Vilardi scoring and the duo of Morgan Barron & Then cabbage looks like 4th line locks, head coach Scott Arniel has opted to mix up the middle six….check out the changes below in our pre-game stats pack with team comparison stats from ESPN and the expected line-ups of PuckPedia:
MATCH-UP STATISTICS
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WINNIPEG JETS ALIGNING
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CALGARY FLAMES SET
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I think I’ve used up all my thoughts in the opening section because I can’t really think of much to add here. Dustin Wolf is far too good a goaltender to continue posting save percentages below .900, so hopefully he doesn’t find out tonight. Also interested in Calgary’s former 9th overall pick, Zayen parehkplay in his rookie campaign (kept off the plate via 4 grams).
As for our Jets… I’m loving what I’ve seen from the Bear this year, so looking for the big center to pick up another point tonight. Would also like to watch Jonathan Toews scoring his first goal with Winnipeg, first-line winger Gabe shaking the monkey off his back by lighting the red lamp, or rookie Lambo pocketing one in his first game. Maybe all of the above??
Either way, considering the Flames have averaged less than two goals per game, the Jets might just need a little offense tonight to pick up two more points.
Go to Winnipeg!!!!!
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AFTER-GAME INFO
**the information below will be added Tuesday morning, so check back tomorrow to see the numbers.**
Score overview: (courtesy of ESPN)
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Game Statistics: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected goals (all): WPG C.G.Y
Expected goals (5on5): WPG C.G.Y
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BOJA’s post-game thoughts will be added Tuesday morning.
#Winnipeg #Jets #Calgary #Flames