Glassnode: Bitcoin realized losses have reached bear market levels

Glassnode data shows that losses are now exceeding gains, a shift rarely seen outside of deep bear phases.

Bitcoin’s on-chain data has provided a signal that has historically preceded prolonged bear market conditions, with the realized profit/loss ratio confirming a regime shift toward loss-dominant selling.

The move suggests that liquidity is evaporating from the market, forcing investors to realize losses rather than book gains, a dynamic last seen during the deepest crypto winters of 2018 and 2022.

Key metrics fall below 1, indicating capitulation risk

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the 90-day simple moving average of realized profit/loss ratio is officially fallen below 1. The metric, which compares the total value of BTC sold at a profit and those sold at a loss, indicates that loss taking now exceeds profit taking across the network.

“This confirms a full transition to an excess loss realization regime,” Glassnode analysts noted in a February 24 update on X.

The company emphasized that historically, breakthroughs below this threshold have taken six months or more to regain Level 1, a recovery that typically signals a “constructive return of liquidity to the market.”

This value represents the peak of a trend that began in early February, when the ratio hovered around 1.5, and ended in January, when the ratio hovered around 1.32.

Furthermore, the current on-chain structure shows concurrence with previous bear market bottoms. CryptoQuant contributor _OnChain observed that indicators related to whale activity, in particular the unspent profitability ratios (UPR) for various cohorts of whale keepers, have reached levels comparable to those of May-June 2022, a period that preceded a significant downward trend before the ultimate bottom formed later that year.

Market context and historical parallels

The current sell-side pressure follows a dramatic slowdown in profit-taking that occurred in December 2025. Previous data from Glassnode showed that average seven-day realized profits fell from over $1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 to just $183.8 million in December, allowing Bitcoin to temporarily stabilize and rise above $96,000 in early January.

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However, this stabilization proved short-lived as macroeconomic headwinds increased. Bitcoin was trading at around $63,200 at the time of writing, down 3.6% in 24 hours and almost 29% in the past month. The asset is also almost 50% below its all-time high reached in October 2025.

Analysts have attributed the continued weakness to a combination of macro factors and not a structural collapse in Bitcoin’s fundamentals. US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcements, including a proposed increase in taxes on global imports, have roiled risk assets in the traditional and crypto markets.

Despite the bearish signals, some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s long-term cycle remains intact. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently framed current volatility as a necessary “teenage state” of monetary evolution, arguing that maturing assets must pass through speculative gradients before institutional stability is achieved.

However, chartist Ali Martinez warned that a three-day ‘death cross’ could be confirmed in late February, foreshadowing the final downward moves in 2014, 2018 and 2022, which would historically lead to additional declines of 30% to 50%.