Galaxy Digital Cuts Year-End Bitcoin Target to $120,000 Amid Lack of Government Bitcoin Buying and Leverages Wipeout

Galaxy Digital’s research department, led by analyst Alex Thorn, has revised its outlook for Bitcoin to $120,000 by the end of 2025, lowering expectations from the previous bull-case scenario of $185,000.

I’m lowering my BTC bullish EOY target to $120k (previously $185k) 👀

just sent this note to customers

whale distribution, non-BTC investments, the treasury slump, and other factors contributed to BTC’s 25-year headwinds.

(long term future is still bullish of course) pic.twitter.com/2aj1eoJlno

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) November 5, 2025

The team cited factors such as continued market sell-offs, whale distribution and growing investor interest in alternatives such as AI and gold. The rapid growth of stablecoins has also shifted the interests of venture capital and equities to fintech and payment infrastructure.

Despite these factors, the structural investment scenario for Bitcoin remains robust, with institutional absorption and passive investment flows expected to moderate volatility and support market maturity.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in a recent interview with CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’, Bitcoin will likely trade between $100,000 and $125,000 through the end of the year barring major catalysts.

According to him, continued government overspending supports the long-term value of crypto as a hedge against fiat debasement. However, he noted that markets will likely remain weak until new catalysts emerge, such as the upcoming crypto market structure legislation in Washington.

“We could take the upside out if the president makes a premature move against the Fed, which they could easily address by the end of the year. And if this bill passes, I mean, those are the two types of catalysts that I see,” Novogratz said.