The arrest of Nicolas Maduro and the announcement that the United States will ‘rule Venezuela’ are undoubtedly being closely watched by their long-time allies Iran, Russia and China – but the developments will affect each country differently.
Venezuelans in Santiago, Chile, celebrate after Donald Trump announced that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had been captured. Source: AP / Esteban Felix/AP
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was “deeply concerned”.
“Regardless of the situation in Venezuela, these developments set a dangerous precedent. The Secretary General continues to emphasize the importance of full respect – by all – of international law, including the UN Charter,” his spokesperson said in a statement.
“He is deeply concerned that the rules of international law are not being respected.”
Venezuela’s allies have condemned the developments – but the consequences will be different for each.
Moscow
The Russian Foreign Ministry has called US actions “very worrying and reprehensible” in its initial response to events in Venezuela and is now demanding the release of Nicolas Maduro.
In October, Russia and Venezuela signed a “strategic coordination treaty,” deepening military ties. Moscow vowed to “stand ready” to support its South American ally. It supplied air defense systems and anti-ship missiles.
None of this has helped Maduro.
While Russia may criticize the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, there is one aspect of the operation that will likely please Russian President Vladimir Putin as he continues his war in Ukraine: the idea that great powers write the rules for themselves, that the “international rules-based order” is dead and buried, and that it is the strong who decide what is right and what is wrong.
Yet these have not been good years for Russian interests abroad, losing key allies in Damascus – and now in Caracas.
Even more worrying for the Kremlin, if the US were to gain control of Venezuela’s oil reserves, Washington would gain greater control over global supply, and therefore prices.
It is energy exports that finance the Russian war machine.
Beijing
Hours before Maduro’s capture, a Chinese delegation met with the now deposed president; the visiting dignitaries offered him no protection from what was to come.
Beijing issued a statement saying it was “deeply shocked and strongly condemned the blatant use of force by the US against a sovereign state.”
Will this change President Xi Jinping’s analysis when it comes to Taiwan? Probably not.
The Chinese president is playing a long game. He will probably also want to create a contrast with Washington, by suggesting that it is China that is committed to respecting international law.
If the US is drawn into a long-term engagement in South America, which draws resources and attention away from the Indo-Pacific, that will suit Beijing just fine.
In recent years, about 80 percent of Venezuelan oil exports have gone to China. Trump has said the sale will go ahead.
Tehran
It’s been a busy start to 2026 in geopolitics. Just over 24 hours ago, President Trump made headlines when he warned the Iranian government that if peaceful protesters were shot, the United States would be “locked and loaded and ready to go.”
Tehran rejected the threat and warned the United States against adventurism. Maybe today they are reconsidering their approach.
Clearly, decapitating the Iranian regime would be a lot more challenging than what took place in Venezuela. Even the top units of the US military would have difficulty finding the ayatollah and dragging him from his bed.
But President Trump has already taken military action against Iran; arranging the main attacks on nuclear facilities during Israel’s 12-day war in June.
Israel cheers from the sidelines, with key political figures urging Iran to “pay close attention” to what is happening in Venezuela.
Havana
“I think Cuba is something we will talk about.”
This brief comment from President Trump deep in his late-night press conference may have caught the attention of leaders in Havana.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez has denounced the US operation in Caracas, calling it a “criminal attack”.
Even if the US does not use the same playbook in Havana, Cuba will be seriously affected by events in Venezuela. It is sending huge amounts of oil to the island, which is facing its worst economic crisis in decades.
An interesting side note: many of the guards who protected Maduro were Cuban, as he had come to distrust his own staff.
Copenhagen
Did this subheading surprise you?
Although Denmark is not an ally of Venezuela, it will keep a close eye on developments.
The nation is not happy with President Trump’s rhetoric about Greenland, a Danish autonomous region. Trump has made it clear he “wants it,” but has done little about it so far.
The idea that the United States would ever take the island by force has always seemed unlikely; After all, Denmark is a NATO ally.
But now? Nothing can be ruled out. President Trump could simply declare that American bases in Greenland have been annexed and there is little the Danes can do about it.
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