YOU.S. President Donald Trump’s whirlwind tour of Asia culminates Thursday with a much-anticipated meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the first between the pair since the American began his second term.
The White House expressed optimism during the talks about signing a far-reaching deal as the two superpowers pursue a mutually beneficial end to their trade detente.
Trump will be in South Korea for the final stop of his five-day Asia tour, which included key visits to the Asean summit in Malaysia and a meeting with new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Japan. On Thursday, he will meet Xi for the first time in six years on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific economic summit.
Negotiators from the world’s two largest economies have already hammered out a framework for a deal, with U.S. officials saying last weekend that it would include a halt to steeper U.S. tariffs and Chinese export controls on rare earth minerals. They hope Thursday’s interaction will shape the trajectory of U.S.-China relations, strained by years of trade tensions, for the remainder of Trump’s second term.
Experts do not expect the two countries to resolve all their differences before the two presidents meet, but they do hope for enough progress to prevent the rivalry from causing further economic damage.
The run-up to the meeting has gripped the headlines for weeks. Stock markets around the world jumped on Monday at the mere possibility of a deal being discussed. Trump has since contributed to the general optimism and sounded confident in a breakthrough.
“I have a lot of respect for President Xi and we are going to, I think, get a deal,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, signaling a change in his tone and a softer approach to the Asian rival. He said he planned to visit China “in early 2026.”
Leaders from 21 Pacific Rim economies are meeting this week in Gyeongju, South Korea, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum.
Thursday’s meeting on the sidelines of Apec comes after Washington and Beijing raised tariffs on each other’s exports and threatened to halt trade in rare earths and technologies.
Trump has so far managed to strike trade deals with Japan and four Southeast Asian countries, but the real challenge has been convincing Xi to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, restart imports of U.S. agricultural products and give U.S. companies a bigger foothold in China.
The talks are also expected to cover issues including Taiwan – which China claims as part of its own territory – Russia’s war in Ukraine and the US fentanyl crisis.
But the possibility of the long-awaited meeting was initially jeopardized by Trump’s threats to impose 100 percent additional tariffs in retaliation against China’s restrictions on exports of rare earths — the minerals crucial to everything from smartphones to fighter jets.
Although Trump increased the tariff pressure on China that he began during his first term, Beijing pushed back with its stranglehold on strategic minerals. China produces nearly 70 percent and processes nearly 90 percent of the world’s rare earth metals.
It also halted imports of agricultural products that could hurt Trump’s Republican voter base and diversified exports to different markets in Asia and Africa. In a tit-for-tat move, China has also hit American ships docking in the country with new port fees.
Beijing has also threatened US companies such as Google and Nvidia with antitrust investigations.
Bloomberg Economics estimates that a 100 percent tariff hike by the U.S. will increase effective tariffs on Chinese goods to 140 percent, which could halt trade altogether. Therefore, Trump’s threats to cripple China with a near-total embargo would also cause irreparable damage to America.
Trump thinks he has the upper hand, but Xi is unlikely to defer to the US president as China’s economy has so far been largely unaffected by Washington’s tariffs.
The angry US government called China ‘weak’ after Beijing imposed export restrictions. But figures show that China could win the trade war. Chinese exports rose 8.3 percent in September from a year earlier to around £246 billion, while shipments to the US fell around 27 percent.
An American official said this The Financial Times that they expected the ceasefire to be extended beyond the previous 90-day period. “We think this would provide great stability and great certainty to the global economy and to the US-China relationship,” the official said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the U.S. side of the talks in Malaysia, said both sides agreed on a “very positive” framework. Chinese state media Xinhua reported that the negotiations covered export controls, tariffs on Chinese shipping, agriculture and fentanyl.
“The talks will most likely result in a near-term trade framework, including China’s commitment to buy more U.S. soybeans,” said Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
“Since China diversified imports to Brazil and Argentina, U.S. farmers have faced increasing inventory and storage costs. Increasing purchases is therefore a low-cost, high-impact concession – meeting U.S. demands while meeting China’s domestic needs,” he says. The independent.
“However, this deal is best seen as a transactional truce rather than a structural breakthrough. It may include limited cooperation on issues such as rare earth exports and control of fentanyl, but core disputes over technology and industrial policy will remain unresolved.
“Both sides appear to be testing a pragmatic engagement model, one that sets aside grand narratives and focuses on solving concrete problems. If successful, the summit could signal to the world that the two largest economies are learning to compete without confrontation, managing differences while working together on shared interests,” said Dr. Chenghao.
“Globally, such predictability would stabilize economic and supply chain expectations, reducing pressure on third countries to take sides. Even a limited agreement would demonstrate that diplomacy and pragmatism remain viable tools for managing great powers amid rivalry.”
Trade analysts warn that markets are in for another week of sharp turns. “Global equity bulls have regained control as optimism over a potential US-China breakthrough fuels risk appetite. But traders should brace for increased volatility as policy decisions and corporate results dictate sentiment,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior market analyst at FXTM. The independent.
Trump is also expected to pressure China to resume purchasing soybeans, America’s largest export to China. ‘I want our farmers to be well taken care of. And him [Xi] wants things too,” Trump said.
Should he fail to reach a deal, Trump has said he would subsidize American farmers — a key demographic for the Republican vote in the Rust Belt — for their lost export revenue.
Trump wants to push China to bring Russia to the negotiating table to end the three-year war with Ukraine. ‘I would like to see China help us [with Russia]he said, adding that Xi also wants the war to end.
Trump has urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, but a ceasefire deal has so far eluded the US president, who appears intent on ending all global conflicts.
China is Russia’s strongest ally and has been accused in the past by the US of aiding Putin’s war machine through oil purchases and technology supplies – a claim denied by Beijing.
After Western sanctions, China is the largest consumer of Russian energy, with Russian oil, gas and coal worth about $219.5 billion. The US president claimed last week that the Chinese president “can have a major influence on Putin”.
Trump has since grown frustrated with Putin after the failed Alaska summit in August and imposed sanctions on two Russian oil giants. “Every time I talk to Vladimir, I have good conversations and then they go nowhere,” Trump said earlier this week.
“This approach recognizes that China has crucial, non-military leverage over Russia as its most important economic partner. By tasking Xi with resolving the conflict, Trump is using his signature transactional style, but also asking a strategic rival to carry out a key US foreign policy goal,” said Yuriy Boyechko, founder of the nonprofit Hope for Ukraine.
For its part, China is expected to push Trump to adhere to the “one China” policy and denounce ties with the self-governing island of Taiwan.
Since taking office earlier this year, Trump has wavered on his position on Taiwan. Trump says Xi has told him he will not invade as long as the Republican president is in power, but the American must also approve any new US arms sales to Taipei.
The US, like most countries, has no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is required by law to give the island the means to defend itself, and the issue is often a source of irritation in China-US relations.
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said he was not afraid of Trump “leaving” the island. Over the weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected the idea that Taiwan would be used as a bargaining chip as part of trade negotiations with China.
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