Coinbase Premium turns positive, signaling major US buyers returning to Bitcoin as the asset’s price recovers.
Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above $93,000, recovering from a sharp drop just days earlier.
This rapid comeback is tied to a crucial shift in the data, indicating that major US investors are starting to buy again.
An important benchmark becomes positive
According to XWIN Research Japan, the Coinbase Premium Index climbed back into positive territory after turning deeply negative in November. During that period, Bitcoin fell below $90,000, due to softer spot buying in the US, while offshore demand remained steady. Historically, a negative premium has been associated with risk-off positioning among regulated US investors.
That backdrop quickly changed this week, with the research firm tying the rebound to a series of major announcements, including Charles Schwab, who oversees about $12 trillion, confirming plans to open trading in Bitcoin and Ethereum in early 2026. It follows Vanguard’s recent pivot to crypto access, a moment that surprised many given the long-standing wariness of digital assets.
XWIN also noted that Japan is preparing to approve Bitcoin ETFs, and with Japanese mutual funds and pension-linked retail flows behind the move, company analysts estimate that $3 billion to $10 billion could enter the market during the early adoption phase.
While no market guarantees a predictable price impact, such flows can provide meaningful upward pressure when combined with demand for US and European ETFs. On top of these structural developments, Coinbase Institutional suggested in a recent outlook report that December could bring relief from Bitcoin’s unusually bad November.
The team cited the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening phase as a supportive shift, pointing out that Bitcoin had fallen more than three standard deviations below its 90-day average, while the S&P 500 was down just one.
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The market structure is becoming stronger
In addition to the inflow of traditional money, the current price increase is notable for its stability. Data from Binance shows that as Bitcoin rose to the $93,000 mark, the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) decreased to the lowest point in about a month. According to market observers, a rapid rise in prices is usually accompanied by more borrowing from traders looking for bigger profits.
The current decline in debt levels signals a reduction in risky speculative positions, making the market less susceptible to the violent, cascading sell-offs caused by mass liquidations, and providing a firmer foundation for the price.
This pattern of strong spot buying with low leverage mirrors the characteristics seen at previous market bottoms. Analyst COINDREAM pointed out that historically, rapid shifts in the Coinbase Premium Gap from negative to positive have occurred coincided with periods of price stabilization and accumulation.
Current activity suggests that a similar dynamic may be developing, with large buyers stepping in at perceived lower price levels.
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