Free tips – Saturday December 27 – Free horse racing tips

SAINT LUCIE 13/2 overall – 0.75 POINTS E/W (5 places, 1/5 odds)

Another horse I have been waiting for and the booking of Paul Towenend on SAINTE LUCIE is music to my ears.

She’s rated at just 127, which I think is definitely small and Willie Mullins will certainly take full advantage of that rating here in what looks like a mediocre race.

This is a horse who was an 11-length winner on his debut at the yard last Christmas and was sent into the Dublin Festival as a ‘hot horse’ and was 13/8 favorite for the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle. She was way too enthusiastic in that race, but it shows how highly they rated her. She then went to the Cheltenham Festival for the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle where she came home in midfield and again ended her season in a Grade 1 at Punchestown where she again came home in midfield. Her last four starts have all been in classified company, three of them at the top.

Now that she’s had the summer and is a little older and wiser, you’d think she’d learned to settle into that better. She is also huge in class, rated 127 and is Paul Townend’s pick.

At this level she is certainly a good choice and I am sure Willie Mullins has worked his magic on the horse during training. Last season he even quoted ‘she looks top drawer’ after her debut win. How good can 127 be after the race when she is actually ‘top shelf’. E/W.

Welsh National Tips (sent on 24 DECEMBER ANTE POST)

2:50 Chepstow

ROCK MY WAY 8/1 overall – 1 POINT E/W (4 places, 1/4 odds)

MONBEG GENIUS 33/1 overall – 0.375 POINTS E/W (4 places, 1/4 odds)

I’ve been following this race for a while and every corner I take keeps coming back to ROCK MY WAY. I’ve been waiting to see what happens to the ground, as if it becomes very soft. That would have included Nassalam in the equation, but because it’s dry from now until the race, the ground won’t be the heavy ground on which he performs best.

Back to ROCK MY WAY and I like it a lot, hence the raised stakes. I think he was tailor-made for this race and I am literally all over him. I was impressed with ROCK MY WAY when I won by 11 lengths at Ascot last month. He jumped so well, he traveled so well and he won as easily as you want. That race would have put him in a good place for the Welsh National as he didn’t have a tough race but was literally on the bridle. The handicapper has had his say and raised him 9lb, but I think he’s still capable beyond that.

It’s trips like this that get the best out of him, as we saw at the Cheltenham Festival last year when he finished second behind Haiti Couleurs in the National Hunt Handicap Chase over 3m 6f. He was beaten by four lengths that day, but today he is 11lb better off on that horse and Haiti Couleurs went on to win the Irish National.

ROCK MY WAY also finished 5th as a novice in the Scottish National, again over a 4 mile run, once again showing his likeness for extreme touring.

In addition, the Tizzards have won the Welsh National twice in the last ten years with Native River and Elegant Escape, the latter effectively owned by the same owners as ROCK MY WAY.

This has been the plan for ROCK MY WAY for some time, with trainer Joe Tizzard quoting after his Ascot win: “The Welsh National has always been the plan”.

He likes to race prominently and as long as he has no accidents or mistakes, I don’t see how he isn’t involved in the finish.

I’m very confident, even though this is a big racing handicap and it’s not always easy, but I’m as confident as you can be in this kind of race. Joe Tizzard’s horses have been running well all season and he can win his third Welsh National in 11 years. E/W.

I have a small piggy bank on MONBEG GENIUS because I think it is way too expensive. We can draw a line on his run at Aintree last time as the yard was completely out of form, but they have recently started to hit some nice form with 3 winners in the last 6 runners. MONBEG GENIUS was also running around last time to inform him of this while lowering his handicap. He is now at 142, which is the same handicap mark as when he won at Uttoxeter in February. It’s also 2 pounds lower than when he finished 4th in this race last season. Back to his fourth place in this race last season and his form around Chepstow which is 1114. Three wins from four starts around Chepstow is as good as it gets and on better ground than last year it will help. I can’t let him leave at this price and have no savings on him since I’m giving him half the price. E/W.

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