Fox News Poll: How Spanberger Won Governor of Virginia

Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears to win the race for Virginia governor, gaining significant leads among reliably Democratic groups while benefiting from economic concerns and President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity in the state.

Spanberger will be the first woman to hold office in the Old Dominion State.

The former Virginia congressman replaces Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who became the first Republican to win a statewide election in Virginia in 12 years when he was elected in 2021. That race surprised many because it was much closer than the 2020 presidential race the year before, when Biden defeated Trump by 10 points. This year it was the other way around, with Spanberger comfortably exceeding the 2024 presidential margin, with Harris just six points ahead of Trump.

Trump undoubtedly played a role in the race, even if he wasn’t on the ballot. Nearly six in 10 Virginia voters disapproved of the job he is doing, while more than half said they strongly disapprove. The vast majority of these voters supported Spanberger.

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Two-thirds of Spanberger supporters said their vote was expressly intended to show opposition to the president. That compares with about a third of those supporting current Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears, who said it was their support.

Aside from those who sent a signal of opposition to Trump, Spanberger’s strong appeal to black voters, college graduates and young people was more than enough to offset Earle-Sears’ strength among white men, white evangelicals and people without college degrees, according to near-final data from the Fox News Voter Poll, a survey of more than 4,000 voters in Virginia.

Even the prospect of voting for the first black female governor of any state did not seem to move black voters, who supported Spanberger by a margin of about nine to one.

Spanberger also benefited from a significant gender gap. 65% of women supported her, compared to 35% for Earle-Sears, a 30-point advantage; and men supported Earle-Sears by 4 points (48% for Spanberger, 52% Earle-Sears) – leaving a 34-point gender gap, one of the largest in recent history.

Abigail Spanberger enjoyed 65% of women supporting her, compared to 35% for Winsome Earle-Sears. (Fox News)

Men supported Winsome Earle-Sears with 4 points. (Fox News)

Neither party is very popular in the state; half of voters said they had an unfavorable opinion of Democrats, and more than half felt this way about Republicans.

However, between the two candidates, Spanberger received a net positive rating — more than half had a favorable opinion of her — compared to Sears, and more than half rated her unfavorably.

Voters remain happy with Youngkin. More than half agreed with the job he is doing as governor.

The top characteristic Virginia voters looked for in a candidate was someone who shares their values, followed by someone who is honest and trustworthy.

Values ​​voters broke for Earle-Sears, while Spanberger carried those seeking fairness.

Spanberger focused heavily on the economy during the campaign, particularly highlighting the damaging impact that the Trump administration’s attempts to overthrow the government in D.C. are having on Virginia, home to a large number of federal workers.

More than six in 10 of those federal employees supported Spanberger.

The economy was by far the most important issue for Virginia voters — with nearly half calling it the most important. Those voters broke significantly for Spanberger.

Healthcare was the second top concern – another issue Spanberger hit hard in the wake of the federal government shutdown and people facing the potential loss of health benefits.

Voters who said health care was their most important issue overwhelmingly chose Spanberger — about four to one.

Overall, Virginia voters — about six in 10 — think the economy is doing fairly well. Those voters supported Earle-Sears.

But when it comes to their own family’s finances, most said they were either staying steady or falling behind. Both groups went for Spanberger.

And of the six in 10 voters who said federal cuts had hurt their family finances, they also supported Spanberger.

Two issues that received a lot of attention from Earle-Sears during the campaign were controversies over trans rights and the disclosure of violent texts from the Democratic candidate for attorney general.

Fewer than half of voters liked Democrat Jay Jones’ texts threatening a fellow lawmaker, disqualifying him from running for attorney general. Those who did broke strong for Earle-Sears.

Fewer than half of voters liked Democrat Jay Jones’ texts threatening a fellow lawmaker, disqualifying him from running for attorney general. (Fox News)

But the rest — those who said the texts were concerning but not disqualifying, were not worrisome, or simply didn’t know enough — were strongly in favor of Spanberger.

It was suspected that some voters would split their votes and support Spanberger for governor but Republican Jason Miyares for attorney general. That didn’t happen. The Democrats who defected to Miyares remained in the single digits and Jones was declared the winner.

Voters who said Jay Jones’ lyrics were troubling but not disqualifying, were not a cause for concern, or simply didn’t know enough strongly favored Abigail Spanberger. (Fox News)

Voters have mixed opinions on transgender rights. Half the support has gone too far – the position Earle-Sears took, with special emphasis on its effect on schools and girls’ sports. However, the other half said the support did not go far enough, or that it was about right.

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Voters have mixed opinions on transgender rights. (Fox News)

Those who said it had gone too far backed Earle-Sears almost four to one, while those who disagreed went hard for Spanberger.

Ultimately, the headwinds of Trump’s unpopularity and the anger of the state’s large number of federal employees were too much for Earle-Sears to overcome.

Only about a third of Virginia voters are happy with the direction the country is heading, and while these voters overwhelmingly supported Earle-Sears, the other two-thirds went big for Spanberger. Of the four in ten who are actually angry about the turn of events, almost all – more than nine in ten – supported Spanberger.

When asked about Trump’s efforts to enforce immigration, more than half say it has gone too far, and perhaps not surprisingly, most of these voters supported Spanberger.

Nearly all Democrats voted for Spanberger, as did some Republicans. Earle-Sears was unable to generate any kind of crossover appeal while winning most Republicans. The small group of independents favored Spanberger.

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Methodology

The Fox News Voter Poll is based on a survey conducted by SSRS of registered voters in Virginia. This survey was conducted from October 22 to November 4, 2025, ending at the close of voting on Election Day. The survey combines data collected online and by telephone from registered voters with data collected in person from voters on Election Day in 30 precincts per state/city. The final step combines all pre-election survey respondents and Election Day exit poll respondents by adjusting the proportion of voting mode (absentee, early in-person, and Election Day) based on the estimated composition of the state/city’s final electorate. Once the votes are counted, the poll results are also weighted to match the overall results in each state. The results among the more than 4,500 Virginia voters interviewed have an estimated sampling error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, including design effects. The margin of error is greater among subgroups.