Four burning questions that will determine the Timberwolves’ championship chances

The Minnesota Timberwolves have played in back-to-back Western Conference finals. However, they are of course looking for their first championship in franchise history. However, there will be plenty of swing factors that play a role in this. Let’s dive into four questions that will determine whether the Wolves can achieve their championship goals.

Will they get enough production out of their point guard room?

For much of the offseason, people wondered if the Wolves could replace Nickeil Alexander-Walker. But so far, Terrence Shannon Jr. sees looks good, and if for some reason that isn’t the case, Jaylen Clark is capable of playing real minutes. The bigger question for me has always been the point guard rotation, which is a clear shortcoming for the Wolves.

Mike Conley is 38 and the Wolves don’t want to rely on him too much. The Ohio State product is hitting career lows in minutes and points. Ideally, second-year guard Rob Dillingham can take on backup lead guard duties. However, the Kentucky product is still very raw, and his preseason did little to inspire confidence that he could play big minutes. Notably, excluding a game against the Guangzhou Loong Lions, he averaged just 8.8 points, on 38/30.7/50 shooting splits in the preseason.

The 6-foot-1 guard showed some promise as a playmaker, recording six assists against NBA teams in the preseason. Nevertheless, if Dillingham cannot achieve efficiency, his role and impact will be limited.

It’s worth wondering how much production they can get out of a 38-year-old Conley and a 20-year-old Dillingham. Conley will serve as the starting point guard; however, he will receive a lower level of starter minutes. For now, it appears Dillingham will compete for a spot in the rotation and will likely see spot minutes instead of a consistent role.

The Wolves will lean on Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle for their playing duties. Either way, the lack of a true lead point guard outside of Conley could be a fatal flaw for the Wolves; it certainly hurt them last season. Maybe the Wolves make a move at the trade deadline, but for now point guard play appears to be a major negative.

Can Rudy Gobert maintain his level of play?

Rudy Gobert has been a pillar of consistency and defensive excellence. Since being traded to Minnesota, he has transformed the team’s defense and helped them reach back-to-back conference finals. However, the 7-foot-1 is now 33, and last year his 12 points per game were the lowest since his third season.

In the playoffs, Gobert averaged just 7.9 points while shooting under 60 percent from the field. This led to Chris Finch reducing his minutes from 33.2 to 27.4. The Wolves will focus on getting Gobert more contacts, but if he refuses to go on offense, his role could be limited.

If Gobert’s offensive decline continues, he will likely get closer to his average of 27 minutes per game in the playoffs. Despite his offensive regression, Gobert is an elite defender, and the Wolves struggled to hold up defense when he sat last year. Notably, last season, with Rudy on the field, they achieved a DRTG of 108.6 (equivalent of second place), but only a DRTG of 116.3 (equivalent of 20th) when he was off the field.

As a result, it’s also worth wondering how the Wolves defense will fare if Gobert’s offense forces him into a limited role. Overall, maintaining a solid offensive impact while remaining an elite rim protector will be key for the Wolves.

Will Jaden McDaniels reach another level offensively?

Outside of the second-year players, the most obvious candidate for a breakout season is Jaden McDaniels. He has long been one of the NBA’s best defenders, but has yet to reach another level offensively. Last season, McDaniels averaged a career-high 12.2 points. In the play-offs he increased his scoring average to 14.7 points. Likewise, McDaniels averaged 14.1 points as of Feb. 1.

McDaniels set crucial career highs in field goals and unassisted shots at the rim, indicating real improvement as a self-creator. As a career 34.8 percent 3-point shooter, developing more consistency from beyond the arc is critical. However, his career 42 3-point percentage in the playoffs is reason for hope. Last season, when McDaniels shot 40 percent or more from three-point range, Minnesota posted a 25-9 record.

Clearly, an aggressive McDaniels correlates with greater team success. And at 25 years old, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see McDaniels reach another level. Ultimately, for the Wolves to achieve their championship aspirations, improving McDaniels offensively will likely be necessary.

Will Anthony Edwards make another leap?

In the NBA, you only go as far as your star takes you, right? Edwards has been a miracle for someone who isn’t even 25 yet. Still, there is room for him to grow, especially if the Wolves win a championship. Edwards has made the All-NBA second team the past two seasons. He’s a clear top-10 player, but he probably needs to be a top-five player to lead the Wolves to the championship.

Positional play, development as a mid-range goalscorer and staying committed defensively are key growth areas for Ant. Specifically, Edwards has focused on becoming a consistent mid-range and post-up threat this offseason. Last year, he shot 37.5 percent from mid-range on 2.7 attempts per game and just 30.8 percent on 26 total post-ups. If Edwards can develop this part of his game, he will become a more complete scorer.

Furthermore, if Edwards stayed involved off the ball, he could become a true two-way superstar. Nevertheless, the biggest growth area for Ant is in playmaking. Last season, he posted a sub-par assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.44 and ranked in the 10th percentile for assist-to-use ratio according to Cleaning the Glass.

The Wolves will depend on Edwards as a playmaker given their point guard issues. If Minnesota wants to reach the championship ceiling, Edwards will have to make better decisions, especially when double-teamed. Fortunately, Edwards has steadily improved his weaknesses throughout his career.