Recently, the Philadelphia Flyers have been criticized for their lineup. Since 2023, four first-round picks have been used to score Oliver Bonk, Jett Luchanko and Jack Nesbitt (trade with picks 22 and 31). Analysts have argued that none of them are expected to become stars, which could negatively impact the team’s long-term prospects.
Related: Flyers still ‘so far away’ according to prospect expert
Fortunately, some of the prospects selected later are starting to make an impact. One of them does that in the NHL: Denver Barkey. He’s developing as a first-round pick despite being a third-round pick in 2023.
Diving into Barkey’s figures
This season, 20 2023 forwards have reached 200 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time. Barkey is one of them, and he is one of only four not selected in the first round. He is now in elite company.
Barkey already looks more like a first-round pick than a third-rounder. This becomes especially clear when we dive into some of the numbers, even though they come from a limited sample of 22 games.
Of those twenty attackers, Barkey is in eleventh placee in points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, with 1.44. That’s notably ahead of Adam Fantilli, the third overall pick in his class.
The impact on the ice was especially an eye-opener. As a rookie, it is sometimes difficult to convert scoring opportunities into production. Barkey has done a decent job of this, but his nine points underestimate how effective he has been.
Barkey ranks second in expected 5-on-5 target share of 59.11%. Additionally, he ranks third in shot-on-goal share with 53.93% and sixth in shot attempt share (aka Corsi) with 51.50%. In other words, he outshines the opposition on most nights – the process is definitely there.
The only thing Barkey contradicts is bad luck puck. When he is on the ice, he has an .848 save percentage at 5-on-5. This may have something to do with the fact that he didn’t play during goalkeeper Dan Vladař’s dominant run early in the season, but in any case, that low figure is unsustainable. Expect fewer goals conceded and a better plus/minus in the future.
Why Barkey is a special player
These numbers are far from nonsense nerd talk. They are proof that everything we’ve seen from Barkey at lower levels is translatable to the best league in the world. He may stand 6 feet tall and weigh 171 pounds, but he has the intelligence, motor skills and skill to win battles and generate offense against larger, much more experienced foes.
Better yet, this is a player years removed from his prime. Barkey is only 20 years old, which means his game is far from finished evolving. The fact that he is already the perfect addition to the veterans in the top nine makes a long-term future in the top six far from unreasonable. In fact, that could be the new expectation.
Someone like Barkey is especially good to have when Porter Martone and Matvei Michkov are the two hopeful faces of the franchise. They need a player who is always on the same page, and that is exactly what Barkey offers. He is a smart, energetic guy who has the ability to fit in with the cool kids.
It’s important not to get too carried away, but Barkey looks like the player we saw in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) and American Hockey League (AHL). The 20-year-old hasn’t missed a beat as he jumped from the juniors to the pros, even during a frustrating stretch for the Flyers. He is developing as a top prospect and surpassing some of the best in his draft class.
Statistics courtesy of Evolving hockey
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