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Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide range of statistics and models to gain a competitive advantage. These range from basic box score statistics to advanced statistics available in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and models such as Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low Model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analysis to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for a detailed explanation of the model, my process and its benefits.
Week 13 Summary
Since 2006, the 2025 season ranks ninth in cumulative wide receiver fantasy points through Week 13 and the worst since 2013. Defenses have reduced wide receiver efficiency while offenses have shifted opportunities to tight ends.
The transition to heavier personnel has likely been a big benefit for the tight end position as well. This season’s cumulative tight end fantasy total is the highest since 2006.
Potential outbreaks: week 14
PWOPR is significantly more stable than FPpG and serves as a stronger indicator of future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the residual is calculated by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from his actual FPpG. Players with a strong PWOPR and a residual of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players will remain on the list until one of the following conditions is met:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big play
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
WRs Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders
Based on Justin Jefferson’s incredible PWOPR (seventh best) and very solid true WOPR, he should score 17.81 PPR points per game. Jefferson currently has the largest deficit between predicted PPR points and actual PPR points in the league.
This is an excellent fit for the Vikings’ wide receiver group. Per PFF Premium StatsCommanders have the worst team PFF coverage rate and the 11th worst team PFF pass rush rate. Washington also allows the ninth-highest open target rate to wide receivers.
The quarterback play has limited this passing game in Minnesota. If there is a match that could lead to optimism for improvement, it is this one. The Commanders’ defense is favorable at every level, which should allow for more accurate throws and potentially explosive play for both Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
WR DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Metcalf is still one of the league’s most efficient receivers per PWOPR (4th best), but his fit within Pittsburgh’s offensive structure continues to exceed his weekly ceiling. The Steelers operate with heavy personnel at the second-fastest pace, a look that usually benefits a true WR1. For context, Seattle uses the same groupings (seventh highest percentage) to create vertical opportunities, as the Seahawks recorded the highest number of deep attempts in the league from heavy sets.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is near the bottom in deep attempt rate from heavy (eighth-lowest), removing many of the routes and concepts that Metcalf has historically turned into explosive plays. This coincides with Aaron Rodgers’ fast time to throw (sixth), and is a real problem for Metcalf’s production.
Baltimore offers a neutral to somewhat favorable fit for outside receivers, but Metcalf will continue to struggle if these underlying offensive trends continue.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins vs Jets from New York
Since Tyreek Hill’s injury, Waddle has risen in PWOPR with a 0.602 (16th best). The Week 14 matchup is favorable.
Per PFF Premium Statsthe Jets are the team’s sixth-ranked PFF coverage unit and allow the 10th-most yards per reception to opposing wide receivers. Even after the Sauce Gardner trade, New York has the third-highest percentage of men, a look that Waddle and Tua Tagovailoa have historically excelled at.
This season, Waddle earns a 23.8% THREAT versus Man with a PFF grade of 74.2. These stats create a high-floor, high-ceiling situation for Waddle in Week 14.
WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
Over the past month, Egbuka ranked third among wide receivers in targets, but is 14th in receiving yards and 11th in receptions. The Saints are a favorable performance spot. New Orleans allows the sixth-highest open target rate to wide receivers and has a bottom-five pass-rush unit.
More broadly, Egbuka’s rookie season has produced a 30th percentile PFF grade and a 23rd percentile grade against single coverage, but an 81st percentile in yards per route. These indicate a recipient who is openly deceived within the structure of the criminal offense. Facing a defense that gives space to the wide receiver position and doesn’t consistently pressure the quarterback, Tampa Bay’s system is well-positioned to convert Egbuka’s volume into production.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland BrownS vs Tennessee Titans
The Titans have the eighth-lowest PFF coverage grade against wide receivers and the ninth-lowest overall team coverage grade. Over the past month, Tennessee has faced the 12th highest passing percentage among opponents and has produced a league-average open-target ratio for wide receivers. The market expects a very low total for this game: 33.5.
Per PFF Premium StatsAmong wide receivers with at least 50 targets, Jeudy has the lowest PFF grade this season. In a low-total environment, with a defense that somewhat favors matchups with wide receivers — and a quarterback with the second-lowest projected passing yards in Week 14 — his outcomes are modest.
WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Chargers
Smith is ranked sixth in the PWOPR this season, but AJ Brown has improved over the past month: Brown’s PWOPR is 0.640 over that period, compared to 0.600 for Smith. The box score reflects that, with two games of 25+ PPR points for Brown and none for Smith.
However, the Chargers’ defense better fits Smith’s profile as a receiver. Los Angeles plays the fourth highest zone rate. Against the zone, Smith leads the team in THREAT at 21.5% and has a PFF grade of 78.6.
Over the past month, opponents have posted the seventh-highest run percentage against the Chargers. But if Philadelphia reaches even the league’s average passing rate, Smith should see a solid performance.
THE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks
After a narrow top-five finish in Week 13, Pitts returns with a continued positive regression signal. When Kirk Cousins started this season, Pitts led the Falcons in goals in all three games.
However, the Week 14 matchup is very difficult. Per Premium StatsSeattle owns the fourth-best PFF team coverage grade and the 10th-best PFF team pass-rush grade.
The Seahawks generate the third-highest pressure rate, and in games with Cousins, Pitts leads the team in THREAT when the quarterback is pressured at 20.7%. Seattle has also pressured the third-most targets while holding the position to an average open-target percentage.
Overall, this is a good fit for Pitts, but a terrible situation for the Falcons offense as a whole.
WR Josh Downs, Indianapolicy Foals vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is playing the 10th highest in zone coverage both season-to-date and over the past month. Downs shows a clear breakdown by coverage. Against man he leads the team in THREAT at 30.9%, but against zone he ranks third in THREAT at 21.6%. The latter is solid, but not as impressive as his account of THREAT.
The Jaguars have the sixth-best PFF coverage grade against teams and the twelfth-best grade against wide receivers. It’s a somewhat challenging individual matchup, but Downs’ usage remains sticky. Expect steady target share, with most of his work landing on zone beaters and under leverage wins.
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