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Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide range of statistics and models to gain a competitive advantage. These range from basic box score stats to advanced stats available in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and models such as Josh Hermsmeyer’s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analysis to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for a detailed explanation of the model, my process and its benefits.
Week 12 Summary
The last three weeks have been historic for the wide receiver position and the lack of fantasy point scoring. However, the model was still able to identify one top-five receiver spot and four top-26 spots.
Potential outbreaks: week 13
PWOPR is significantly more stable than FPpG and serves as a stronger indicator of future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the residual is calculated by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from his actual FPpG. Players with a strong PWOPR and a residual of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players will remain on the list until one of the following conditions is met:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big play
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
This week I’m just going to focus on the most talked-about names. But all of the players on the list have an outsized chance of performing beyond their expectations – and in some cases delivering exceptional performances.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengal vs Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has allowed the seventh-highest single-coverage snaps to arise this season and is playing man coverage at the fifth-highest rate. Over the past two seasons (to capture more dropbacks from Joe Burrow), Chase has a 27.3% THREAT with a 78.3 PFF grade against man coverage, and he has been even better against zone (90.4 PFF grade).
The big swing factor is context. Burrow returns after months away, and Tee Higgins is out in a matchup that saw Chase erupt for 41.0 and 55.0 PPR points in the 2024 season, setting up a strong spot for Chase to have elite production.
WR DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills
Metcalf headlines the article “Coach, I Was Open” with a 32.2% share of predicted goals and a PWOPR of 0.807. That’s the real power at the WR1 level, and it will eventually show up in the box score.
The problem was function and timing. Metcalf’s deeper routes clash with a quick passing game. On the season, Aaron Rodgers has the fifth-fastest average time to throw, while Mason Rudolph posted the third-fastest time to throw in Week 12 – which didn’t help Metcalf’s downfield profile.
Buffalo also limits depth, giving up the 12th lowest aDoT while generating the 13th fastest pressure. Pittsburgh may once again struggle to hold onto the ball long enough to unlock Metcalf’s splash plays.
WRs Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks
JJ McCarthy’s accuracy remains a concern. Over the past three weeks, he has an accurate throw percentage of 55.7% (26th), which is higher than his season average of 51.8%, but still well below the league average of 61.2%.
With McCarthy’s status remaining unclear, Max Brosmer could start against a ruthless Seattle defense that boasts a top-four PFF team coverage grade, a top-10 team pass-rush grade and sixth overall in team defense grade. The Week 13 format is tough on Jefferson and the Vikings’ passing game.
WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
Tucker continues to work his way onto the roster as he continues to open up to his teammates. Over the past month, he has posted the ninth-best PWOPR, yet he still sits at WR42 in PPR points. That shows how poorly the Raiders offense has utilized Tucker.
The Chargers present another stiff test with the eighth-best team PFF coverage rate, but they also allow the third-highest number of open targets to wide receivers. With offensive coordinator Chip Kelly gone, Tucker could emerge as a bigger center, though the post-Kelly version of this offense has yet to prove that.
WR Emeka Ebuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals
Egbuka opened the year with five straight strong performances, and his recent box score data doesn’t reflect his involvement in the offense. Over the past two weeks, he has completed 17 targets but produced just 72 yards with no touchdowns.
The underlying usage and assets still indicate a positive effect. Egbuka has been ranked 10th in PWOPR for the past month, and with such a high PWOPR, production is sure to come.
Arizona is a tough matchup, allowing the third-lowest open target rate against wide receivers, in addition to the fourth-best PFF grade in coverage against wide receivers. The Cardinals also rank 12th in overall team PFF coverage grade, so this may require volume to do the heavy lifting.
WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengal
Flowers continue to open, but objectives have not been followed. He hasn’t scored six goals since Week 8, but has posted a top-15 PWOPR over the course of the season.
Cincinnati has been a rebound match for offenses all year long, ranking fifth in both the team’s PFF coverage and the team’s PFF pass-rush grades – contributing to the lowest overall team defense grade. The Bengals combining a bottom-three defense with an above-average offense gives Flowers a clean path to a true peak week.
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