Thursday Night Football in Week 15 of the NFL season is an NFC South showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite being in a dying division, Atlanta has already been eliminated from the playoffs with a 4-9 record. Tampa Bay (7-6) is trying to hold off the Carolina Panthers for first place.
Let’s take a look at my Falcons vs. Bucs predictions.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds
Moneyline: Falcons +200 / Buccaneers -245
Distribution: Falcons +4.5 (-110) / Buccaneers -4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 44.5 (-115) / Under 44.5 (-105)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers #1 Best Bet: Under 44.5 (-105)
There are no secrets between division rivals, each knowing exactly what the other wants to do on offense. Of course, that doesn’t automatically result in a low-scoring battle, but the first head-to-head matchup of 2025 between these two teams was relatively short on offense (the Bucs went to Atlanta and won 23-20 in Week 1). Since then, both offenses have worsened. The Falcons have been forced to turn from Michael Penix Jr. (ACL) to Kirk Cousins under center. Cousins hasn’t been as terrible as last season, but at 37 years old — and with an injury history of his own — he’s a below-average quarterback. As for Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield has struggled in recent weeks and production has suffered. Head coach Todd Bowles’ team scored at least 25 points in four straight games from Week 3 through Week 6. Since then, it has been limited to 23 points or fewer in six of the past seven games.
Neither QB can be expected to get much help on Thursday. For the visitors, WR1 Drake London (knee) is questionable and not expected to play. Atlanta’s biggest threat is RB Bijan Robinson, but the Bucs’ defense is great against the run (No. 8 in the NFL with 100.6 yards per game allowed). For Tampa Bay, receiver Mike Evans (collarbone) hasn’t caught a pass since Week 3; receiver Jalen McMillan is out; Left tackle Tristan Wirfs (oblique) is questionable. Possibly without some of those guys, Mayfield will have to cope with a revamped Falcons pass rush that ranks third in the league with 43 sacks.
Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Player Prop Bet: Bucky Irving Over 62.5 rushing yards (-110)
With Evans Rusty and fellow WR Emeka Egbuka in an alarming slump, Irving may represent Tampa Bay’s best chance at offensive success on Thursday Night Football. Irving has played two games since returning from an injury that sidelined him for two months. The Oregon product rushed for 61 and 55 yards in those two games (he also scored two touchdowns), but he has exceeded that 62.5 quota three times in a total of six games this year.
He now faces an Atlanta defense that is much worse against the run (No. 24 at 131.0 ypg allowed) than against the pass (No. 9 in the NFL). Irving, who scored a TD in the season opener against the Falcons, also has very good value for finding the end zone at +120.
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