Export uncertainty could dampen domestic momentum for solar companies

ET Intelligence Group: The imposition of countervailing duties (CVD) by the US Department of Commerce on solar panels from India will not only impact exporters but also companies targeting the domestic market. With the viability of shipments to the US uncertain due to a CVD of 125.87%, exporters are likely to shift unsold inventory to the Indian market. According to analysts, this could reduce module prices and affect realizations. “Companies with minimal or no exports to the US will also be hit by cardiovascular diseases. They will be at indirect risk if export volumes from peers are shifted to India. Increased domestic supply could put pressure on module realizations,” Sweta Jain, research analyst at Anand Rathi Institutional Equities told ET. Indian exports could also look at other alternative markets in Africa or the Middle East and North Africa, she added.

Companies rely on the US for higher realizations. The imposition of CVD will erase the price advantage that previously allowed Indian manufacturers to achieve superior margins.

Waaree Energies tried to calm investors’ nerves by saying the company’s exports will not be affected by CVD. “The company has gradually strengthened its manufacturing footprint in the US as part of its long-term strategy to support local manufacturing,” Waaree Energies said in a statement to stock exchanges on Wednesday. It has a total US module manufacturing capacity of approximately 2.6 GW, which will be expanded to approximately 4.2 GW by the end of the current fiscal year. At the end of December 2025, it had a total installed capacity of 23 GW.

Shares of Waaree Energies fell 10.5%, the steepest among peers, to ₹2,709 on BSE. Shares of Vikram Solar and Premier Energies fell 5.5% and 6.3% respectively.

Moreover, companies focused on solar energy companies also took a hit. Solex Energy, maker of photovoltaic (PV) solar panels and EPC services provider for solar projects, fell 8%, while Waaree Renewable Technologies fell 3% on Wednesday.

The CVD has also eroded the future visibility of earnings of Indian manufacturers, who see the US as a key market for diversification and higher-margin exports. Companies planning to increase their exposure to the US, invest in export-oriented capacity or secure long-term supply contracts will now find these strategies commercially unviable under the high duty regime. Investors will keep a close eye on further developments and any fruitful negotiations with the US government that would result in a partial or complete rollback of duties would provide major relief.