Bitcoin’s long-term structure has always been examined from the perspective of the halving cycle, and one crypto expert believes the pattern points to a clear price bottom.
The analysis focuses on a recurring, time-based rhythm linked to each halving event, and a specific window is suggested for when accumulation could begin again. Crypto expert Blockchainedbb predicted that Bitcoin may be entering a new structured reset phase that will take a while, and it may not be until the fourth quarter of 2024 that the best time to buy BTC presents itself.
Bitcoin’s 135-week rule before halving
The timing framework is based on a recurring pattern observed prior to Bitcoin’s halving events, highlighted by expert Blockchainedbb. According to his analysis, every previous major price trough of the Bitcoin cycle was reached somewhere around 135 weeks before a halving occurred.
The weekly chart shared in the analysis shows previous halving dates, including May 11, 2020 and April 19, 2024, and lays out green accumulation zones around profitable long-term entry points. Price compression in those zones in previous cycles preceded explosive upward moves that eventually led to new all-time highs.
Applying the same calculation, Blockchainedbb estimates that the next meaningful bottom could form in late Q4 of this year. The expected price range for that bottom is between $50,000 and $58,000. This range is derived by extrapolating the structure of the current cycle from the bottom of the previous half-life.
If the pattern repeats itself again, it means Bitcoin will continue to trade in a series of lower lows for most of the year, positioning the fourth quarter as an accumulation window before the next sustained uptrend of higher highs emerges.
Q2 and Q3: A merchant’s market
Under this approach, the expert considers the first and fourth quarters to be the most important periods for investors looking to build longer-term exposure. Q4 is seen as the likely bottoming phase, while Q1 is investors are expected to leave at a price of approximately $75,000.
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s price history shows that the remaining quarters, the second and third quarters, are an environment better suited to active short-term traders than long-term holders. According to the expert, the second and third quarters have always been characterized by directional moves and breakdowns below key technical levels, especially the 200-week exponential moving average for altcoins. During these phases, short-term positioning and tactical trading tend to dominate.
Therefore, the most positive long-term technical outlook is for investors to wait for more favorable structural window in the fourth quarter of 2026. As it stands now, Bitcoin’s next halving is expected to take place sometime in April 2028. This will happen at block height 850,000, reducing the block reward from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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