The United States imports 100% of its natural graphite – a material that makes up roughly 68% of a battery’s weight and is used in defense systems, aerospace and industrial applications. Almost half of that supply comes from China. For decades, that dependency was treated as a cost of doing business problem. Washington is now treating it as a national security issue.
Earlier this month, the US Department of Commerce finalized total anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) of at least 160% on certain Chinese graphite imports, separate from existing tariffs. If the US International Trade Commission (ITC) upholds the ruling in March, the tariffs will remain in place for at least another five years.
160% duties neutralize China’s price advantage
Chinese graphite has had structural price advantages for decades. A 160% tax effectively negates that. Combined with China’s tightening export controls and increasing national security scrutiny, Adiani said purchasing priorities are already shifting. “We are seeing increased inbound interest from US industrial, defense and energy storage customers who are actively reassessing supply chain risk,” she said.
The timing is important. Adiani noted that energy storage systems are growing 37% year over year, and demand for graphite is growing alongside AI infrastructure and network deployment.
The US currently imports 100% of its natural graphite. About 42% comes directly from China, according to S&P Global. The US used about 79,000 tons of natural graphite last year.
Titan expects 50% of US demand by 2028
Titan’s Kilbourne project in New York is central to the strategy. It was discovered in 2022, started production in 2026 and is targeting 40,000 tonnes per year by 2028 – potentially meeting almost half of current US demand.
Adiani credited the proximity to an existing, fully permitted mine for the faster-than-usual start-up. “We’ve gone from just one project to real output and customer qualification. That materially de-risks our story compared to new entrants,” she said.
To support the buildout, Titan has secured up to $120 million in long-term capital through EXIM and U.S. government financing partners.
Tariffs in themselves are not enough
However, Adiani was careful not to exaggerate the duty arrangement. “Tariffs alone are not a silver bullet,” she said. Domestic producers need a structurally supported market that includes financing, policy continuity and strategic supplies, not just import penalties.
She pointed to two recent moves in Washington as signals of that broader commitment: a Section 232 Executive Order directing an investigation into critical vulnerabilities in the mineral supply chain, and Project Vault — a $12 billion public-private partnership aimed at securing critical mineral reserves and reducing dependence on China.
The 25% Section 301 tariff on Chinese graphite also remains in place alongside the new AD/CVD duties, further layering protections.
A valuation reset for strategic assets?
Newcomers will likely be on their toes if the ITC confirms the ruling next month.
But Adiani is skeptical about the fast-paced competition. “Building a permitted, integrated business from scratch can often take years,” she says. This reality gives established players a window that others cannot easily close.
“When a market shifts from 100% import dependence to domestic production, supported by national policies, it often resets the way investors value strategic assets.”
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