Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH hasn’t turned completely bearish, but it’s close

Ethereum continues to show signs of weakness and fails to mount any significant recovery despite remaining above local support. Market participants are showing hesitation, likely due to broader uncertainty and Bitcoin’s lack of bullish momentum. While ETH has not yet broken down, it has also failed to reverse major resistances, leaving it in a fragile, range-locked state.

Technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily time frame, ETH is currently trading below the key supply zone of $3,300-$3,700, where the 200-day moving averages (orange) and 100-day (blue) act as key dynamic resistance. This zone has consistently rejected prices over the past month, confirming that this is a major battleground between buyers and sellers.

The RSI on the daily time frame is also stuck below the 50 level, indicating weak momentum and continued bearish pressure. If ETH cannot break above the mentioned confluence area soon, the chances of a deeper pullback towards the $2,700 support zone increase. A rejection here would also confirm a lower high in the macro structure, which is not a good outlook heading into 2026.

The 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, the structure has become vulnerable again after ETH failed to hold the lower channel trendline and broke back below the rising channel. The upside attempt near $3,100, followed by a lower high, signals a clear loss of bullish strength.

Currently, the asset is hovering just above the USD 2,800 support level, which acts as short-term support. But there is no follow-up or aggressive purchase. The RSI is also starting to curl downward again, indicating that momentum is waning on intraday timeframes. If it breaks through the $2,800 support zone, a quick flush towards the $2,600 area would be likely.

Sentiment analysis

Open interest

Ethereum’s open interest remains quite high at around $18 billion across all exchanges, even as the price struggles to move higher. This discrepancy between stable open interest and flat to downward price action often indicates a build-up of speculative leverage, especially from longs. Without a breakout or strong demand to support it, this type of OI behavior becomes a risk factor, especially if funding rates start showing very positive numbers.

If ETH fails to hold key support points, this situation opens the door for a prolonged push, with overly optimistic positions being vigorously liquidated, accelerating the decline. Therefore, it is critical for buyers that open interest begins to decline with the price, or a breakout confirms that the build-up was justified.