ETH risks further downfall up to $ 3.5k if this supports: Ethereum Price analysis

Ethereum is currently trying to stabilize after the recent sale that has pushed prices under the most important levels. Although the bullish trend structure is not fully broken on higher timetables, both price action and on-chain statistics show mixed signals that traders must carefully control.

Technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily graph

On the Daily Chart, ETH has lost the center line of his rising channel, under the dotted trendline that the price had supported since August. The active test now the most important level of $ 4,000, which closely matches the lower limit of the channel and the 100-day advancing average around the level of $ 3,800.

The RSI has also fallen in the vicinity of the over -sold area, but has returned somewhat and is now floating around 40, and points to a possible local soil as buyers with volume intervention. However, if it is actively breaking below the level of $ 4,000, a deeper fall to the range of $ 3.5k can be expected, which would officially bring the market into a down trend situation.

The 4-hour graph

On the 4 -hour graph, ETH shows signs of a short rebound after reaching the purple demand zone around $ 3,850. The price bounced pretty sharp from this zone and now consolidates just below $ 4K. This movement forms a potential soil in the short term, especially since RSI has left Oversold area and is now trending.

That said, the structure remains bearish as long as ETH remains below $ 4,200 level. If buyers can reclaim that level, the momentum can go back in favor of a bullish. Otherwise a drop to the $ 3,500 area would be very likely in the coming weeks.

Onchain -analysis

Exchange Supply Ratio

In the field of the chain front, the ratio of the exchange of Ethereum remains trend, now at the lowest point in the years, almost 0.13. This shows that a decreasing part of the total ETH food is held on centralized exchanges, which suggests a strong long-term accumulation trend. Historically this was a bullish signal, because it means that fewer tokens are immediately available for selling.

However, this accumulation trend is contrasted with the recent price promotion. While less ETH is at trade fairs, the price still fell sharply, possibly as a result of short -term leverage or wider market sentiment. In any case, this metric supports the idea that holders remain confident in the long term, and unless we see a sudden reversal in exchange flows, the macro-bullish structure remains intact.