England and Scotland’s most likely opponents at the 2026 World Cup

The draw for the 2026 World Cup will take place on December 5, when 48 teams will learn their fate for the group stage.

While England and Scotland are guaranteed to go to North America next summer, Northern Ireland or Wales will know who they are up against if they manage to get through the play-offs in March.

We look at the most likely groups for the homelands ahead of the Washington draw.

What are the rules for the World Cup To draw?

Each country is divided into one of four pots, with each group consisting of one representative per pot.

FIFA aims not to have multiple teams from the same confederation, but because UEFA will have 16 representatives in a 12-group format, four groups will include multiple European countries.

However, the other confederations may not have multiple members in a group.

Who are England’s most likely World Cup opponents?

England will most likely get a South American team in pot two. Colombia, Uruguay and Ecuador each have an 11% chance, which equates to about a one in three chance of a COMNEBOL country being drawn from pot two.

As for pot three, the country with the highest probability is Panama, which plays in the CONCACAF confederation. England shared a group with them in 2018 and they have a 10% chance of this happening eight years later.

Paraguay (11%) has a higher chance of being drawn, but because the chances of a COMNEBOL country being drawn in pot two are so high, Panama is the most likely opponent.

And if that happens, don’t be surprised if the Three Lions are drawn in pot four against one of Ghana, Cape Verde or Jordan. Each of them has a 10% chance, while New Zealand can’t be counted out with a 9% chance.

There are countries with higher percentages in pot four, but because Curaçao and Haiti (both 12%) are in the same confederation as Panama, they would not be drawn in that group.

While each of the Interconfederation play-off winners (12% and 15%) have Jamaica (CONCACAF) in one and Bolivia (COMNEBOL) in the other, they will therefore not be drawn.

What is Scotland’s most likely World Cup group?

Scotland has a 13% chance of eliminating Germany from the first pot, which would see the two sides meet again after the opening of Euro 2024.

In pot two, Steve Clarke’s team has a great chance of being joined by an African team. Senegal and 4th-ranked Qatar and Morocco each have a 15% chance of being drawn into the Tartan Army, far from the Scotland fans hoped for ‘dream draw’.

And if all that goes as predicted, they will likely face the winners of the interconfederation play-off between Iraq, Bolivia and Suriname. The chance of this happening is 15%.

Cape Verde and Ghana, both at 14%, also have a 14% chance of being taken out of pot four, but because they are in the same confederation as the likely representative of pot two, it will not be possible for them to be in it.

The potential World Cup opponents of Wales and Northern Ireland

Although Wales and Northern Ireland will know in March whether they will head to North America, they will know who they will play on December 5, should either of them manage to qualify.

Northern Ireland travel to Italy for their semi-final, while Wales host Bosnia-Herzegovina.

In the event that they both win their semi-finals, there would be an all-home decider for a place at the tournament.

In pot one, there is a good chance that they will be paired with one of the host countries. There is a 20% chance that they will be drawn with Canada and Mexico and a 19% chance that they will be drawn with the United States.

In pot two, they will likely be paired with someone from the AFC confederation. Japan, Iran, South Korea and Australia all have a 12% chance of being drawn.

And in pot three, there is a good chance that they will be paired with a country from the CAF confederation. Egypt, Algeria, Ivory Coast, Tunisia and South Africa they all have an 11% chance of being paired with the winners of that specific play-off tournament.