Russia is reportedly developing a new anti-satellite weapon specifically designed to attack Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation, according to intelligence findings from two NATO countries.
These reports, seen by The Associated Press, indicate that the so-called “zone effect” weapon aims to flood Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets.
Such a weapon could potentially take out multiple satellites at once, but also carries the risk of catastrophic collateral damage to other systems in orbit. The alleged goal behind this development is to curb Western superiority in space exploration, which has played a crucial role in helping Ukraine on the battlefield.
However, analysts who have not reviewed these specific findings are skeptical and question whether such a weapon could be deployed without causing uncontrollable chaos in space. This chaos would affect not only Western entities but also companies and countries, including Russia and its ally China, that rely on thousands of orbiting satellites for vital communications, defense and other essential needs.
These significant consequences, including potential risks to its own space systems, could ultimately deter Moscow from deploying or using such a weapon.
“I don’t believe in it. I really don’t,” said Victoria Samson, a space security specialist at the Secure World Foundation, who leads the Colorado-based nongovernmental organization’s annual study of anti-satellite systems. “I would honestly be very surprised if they did something like that.”
But the commander of the Canadian Army’s Space Division, Brigadier General Christopher Horner, said such Russian work cannot be ruled out in light of previous US accusations that Russia is also pursuing any nuclear, space-based weapon.
“I can’t say I’m aware of that kind of system. But it’s not unlikely,” he said. “If the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is accurate and they are willing to develop it and are willing to do so, then it wouldn’t seem shocking to me that something less than that, but equally damaging, is within their development wheelhouse.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to messages from the AP seeking comment. Russia has previously called for United Nations efforts to halt orbital deployment of weapons, and President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no plans to deploy nuclear space weapons.
Weapon would have multiple purposes
The intelligence community’s findings were shown to the AP on the condition that the agencies involved were not identified and the news organization could not independently verify the conclusions of the findings.
The US Space Force did not respond to questions. The French military’s Space Command said in a statement that it could not comment on the findings, but said: “We can inform you that Russia has multiplied irresponsible, dangerous and even hostile actions in space in recent years.”
Russia considers Starlink in particular to be a serious threat, the findings show. The thousands of low-orbit satellites have been crucial to Ukraine’s survival during Russia’s massive invasion, now in its fourth year.
Starlink’s high-speed Internet service is used by Ukrainian armed forces for battlefield communications, weapon targeting and other purposes, and by civilians and government officials where Russian attacks have affected communications.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving the Ukrainian military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it has deployed a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, capable of hitting targets in low orbit.
Unlike a missile that Russia tested in 2021 to destroy a defunct Cold War satellite, the new weapon in development would target multiple Starlinks at once, potentially releasing pellets from yet-to-be-launched formations of small satellites, the intelligence findings said.
Canadian Brigadier General Horner said it is difficult to understand how clouds of pellets could be brought together to hit Starlink alone and that the debris from such an attack could “quickly spiral out of control.”
“You’re blowing up a box full of BBs,” he said. Doing so would “undermine an entire orbital regime and take out every Starlink satellite and every other satellite that’s in a similar regime. And I think that’s the part that’s incredibly troubling.”
The system may only be experimental
The AP’s findings do not indicate when Russia might be able to deploy such a system, nor do they indicate whether it has been tested or how advanced the investigation is likely to be.
The system is in active development and information about the timing of an expected deployment is too sensitive to share, according to an official familiar with the findings and other related information that the AP has not seen. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the non-public findings.
Such Russian research could simply be experimental, Ms. Samson said.
“I wouldn’t leave it to some scientists to build something like this because it’s an interesting thought experiment and they think, you know, ‘Maybe at some point we can get our government to pay for it,’” she said.
Ms Samson suggested that the specter of a supposed new Russian threat could also be an attempt to provoke an international response.
“Often people who put forward these ideas do so because they want the American side to build something like this or … to justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities or use them for a more aggressive approach to Russia,” she said.
“I’m not saying this is what’s happening here,” Ms. Samson added. “But people have been known to adopt and use these crazy arguments.”
Small pellets can go unnoticed
The intelligence findings show that the pellets would be so small – just millimeters in diameter – that they could evade detection by ground and space-based systems that scan for space objects, which could make it difficult to pinpoint blame for an attack on Moscow.
Clayton Swope, a specialist in space security and weapons at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based security and policy think tank, said that if “the pellets are not traceable, that complicates things,” but “people would figure it out.”
“If satellites break down with damage, I think you can put two and two together,” he said.
It is not clear exactly how much destruction small pellets can cause. In November, a suspected impact from a small piece of debris was enough to damage a Chinese spacecraft intended to return three astronauts to Earth.
“The most damage would probably be to the solar panels because they are probably the most vulnerable part of satellites,” Mr Swope said. “However, that would be enough to damage a satellite and probably take it offline.”
‘Weapon of fear’ can threaten chaos
After such an attack, pellets and debris would fall back to Earth over time, potentially damaging other systems in orbit, analysts say.
Starlink’s orbits are about 550 kilometers above the planet. China’s Tiangong space station and the International Space Station operate in lower orbits, “so both would be at risk,” Mr Swope said.
The space chaos such a weapon could cause could allow Moscow to threaten its adversaries without actually having to use it, Swope said.
“It definitely feels like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of deterrent or something,” he said.
Ms Samson said the drawbacks of any pellet weapon could deter Russia from this path.
“They have invested a tremendous amount of time, money and human power to become a space force,” she said.
Using such a weapon “would essentially cut off space for them as well,” Ms. Samson said. “I don’t know if they would want to give up that much.”
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