Drone campaign pushes Russian gas up to $ 9 per gallon, if there is one

Russia is confronted with gas shortages, because refinery goes up in flames after the refinery under a growing attack by Ukrainian drones.

Proof of the problem comes from several sources. It is illegal for Russians to share images of drone attacks on social media, but people still post Videos of exploding refineries. And we are starting to hear the first rumbling about Russian social media about the impact that the strikes have on daily life. Putin’s war comes home and it will meet everyone.

Pay the war prize at the pumps

According to Russian official statistics, Gas is now on average $ 2.66 per gallon. Nobody believes those statistics, which show an increase of almost 3% in the past month. The real figure for the average is undoubtedly considerably higher, but it starts to be irrelevant. Because gas becomes more difficult to find.

According to Reports about Russian social media Two weeks ago in the Sokolsky district of Nizhny Novgorod a few hundred miles east of Moscow, gas stations had been completely out of the gas for a few days. The locals drove to neighboring cities to fill cars and fuel cans.

Since then the deficits have been spread. Visioner, Writing on Twitter/XC notes that shortages had spread over ten other areas – Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, Samara, Ulyanovsk, Penza, Rostov, Astrakhan, Kalmykia and Tatarstan.

The Institute for the Study of War says that Russian state media Starting to discuss gasoline openlyAlthough they often play them and suggest routine causes. At the end of July, Russia imposed an export ban on gasoline, supposedly due to requirements of “summer and grain harvest” According to Reuters.

The export ban did not work. Fuel kingdoms grow and gas is often only available on the black market with Prices are now reporting $ 9 per gallon. Filling that price would be painful enough in us, and worse in Russia where the average salary is About $ 1200 a month.

There are still enough customers, even at that pace. Because, although they may only get a filtered image of the news, Russians can see what is happening with the stock. If they do not buy as much as possible this month, the prices will be even higher next month and finding gas will be more difficult. Some refineries have not sent gasoline for weeks and the problem is spreading.

Burn off the house

Ukraine has been on fire for almost three years of Russian oil facilities. These include a lot of spectacular and expensive attacks on storage tanks and other locations, but the small scale of the attacks means that the refineries have escaped great damage. When refineries were damaged, they were repaired quickly, so while the Russia attacks cost money, their effects were not widely felt. That is now changing.

In August, a report from the Carnegie -Scheijdening was brutally entitled Can Russia display a fuel crisis through the Ukrainian drone attacks? This noted that the scale of the Russian industry and how difficult it would be to harm. The report noted that all attacks until that date had only affected 20% of Russia’s refining capacity. Even if those refineries cannot be repaired, Russia has sufficient excessive capacity to come up with the shortage. Further damage can also be compensated by input from Wit -Russia.

The Russian government also has other options, including relaxing norms and allowing refineries to sell off-grade products as a motor fuel. Compiled, these measures show how much play there is in the system and why hits on refineries have not had much effect on the pumps before.

But the attacks have been considerably increased in recent weeks. Special Kherson Cat had a total of 13 hits in August on refineries with a combined capacity of more than 110 million tons.

Writing on September 14^one Igor Sushko mentioned 17 strikes over the past 45 days With 42% of the total refinement capacity of Russia. These include high-profile efforts such as those who met the Novoufa-Olierraffinaderij-20 million tons of capacity-on September 13^one.

On August 29^oneRobert ‘Magyar’ Brovdi, commander of the unmanned troops of Ukraine, stated that they had done so Russia’s fuel production reduces by 20% In just two weeks.

The damage can be repaired and the interruption may not be permanent. But follow -up falls will cause more damage. And although fuel tanks can easily be replaced, much of the refining equipment is important and it is impossible to replace due to sanctions.

More disturbing for the Russians, as the pace of attacks increases, air defense seems to be less effective.

“Which air defense does?”

To hit the Ulfa refinery, Ukrainian AJ-22 foxbats-controversed light aircraft full of explosives-firster must have traversed at least 900 miles of Russian airspace Diving in the refinery. This is not a high-speed jet and it has no stealth options. But it seems to have been able to come all the way to the target without being challenged.

‘What air defense does? ” – A complaining cry turned into a mocking meme when Ukrainian drones demonstrated that they could get goals in the occupied Crimea is again an important question.

Radiy Khabirov, the regional governor, made a statement about the drone attack On Ulfa, claiming that the site was in fact defended and that defenders had fired more than a thousand machine gun rounds (presumably small caliber) and 200 heavy machine guns (presumably 12.7 mm/14.5 mm caliber) with the attacking drones. So one of the largest oil refineries in Russia is protected by perhaps a few infantry squadrons without a single Iggla shoulder gel launched surface-air rocket Between them.

Unfortunately for Khabirov, Russia is a vast country and there are many strategic installations to defend. Air defenses have already been exhausted by three years of war; Moving them to refineries would leave gaping holes elsewhere. Railways, power stations and other locations, as well as air base and military goals must be protected.

In the meantime, Ukrainian makers say that they are producing 100 long distance FP-1 strike drone per day, Or 3,000 a month. Expect much more drone attacks in the future.

Smart Russian entrepreneurs will save all the gas they can buy for more shortages and price increases. Moscow and St. Petersburg will be protected for the time being; when A commentator stated itPutin will let the rest of the country travel by donkey and cart before he starts rating in the capital. For the rest of Russia, the problem is real and gets worse quickly.