ERA has gone the way of batting average in the modern era of baseball. While it’s still a bit of a barometer of real performance, it’s not really valuable at first glance. These numbers are easily digestible for the average fan and can be sold to show who is good and who is bad. Unfortunately, that is not always the case.
Players consistently perform below average and above average. Great players can have terrible ERAs for half a season, while terrible pitchers can make the All-Star Game for a few months because of their defense and flyball luck! Overall, it’s difficult for bad pitchers to sustain great ERAs over multiple years, while good/great pitchers can offset their bad years in a large enough sample (unless they play for the Rockies).
Luckily, we have access to great resources like RazzBall, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference to dig into ERA and figure out where real performance lies between K-BB (strikeout minus walks), groundball rate, hard hit rate, xFIP, xERA, SIERA, etc.
The victims of 2025
SP Shota Imanaga (CHC)
2024 ERA: 2.91
2024 xFIP/CHEESE: 3.62/3.50
2025 ERA: 3.73
SP Bryce Miller (SEA)
2024 ERA: 2.94
2024 xFIP/CHEESE: 3.85/3.80
2025 ERA: 5.68 (injury involved)
SP Ronel Blanco (HOLD)
2024 ERA: 2.80
2024 xFIP/CHEESE: 4.09/4.17
ERA 2025: 4.10
SP Bowden Francis (TOR)
2024 ERA: 3.30
2025 xFIP/CHEESE: 4.17/ 3.88
2025 ERA: ERA 6.05
RP Alexis Diaz (CIN)
2024 ERA: 3.99
2024 xFIP/CHEESE: 5.06/4.48
2025 ERA: 8.15 (between three teams)
The victims of 2026
SP Gavin Williams (CLE)
2025 ERA: 3.06
2025 xFIP/CHEESE: 4.08/4.35
Gavin Williams is a talented SP with a deep pitching repertoire who overachieved in 2025 after underperforming in 2024. Regression is a two-way street, and he will soon find himself in the middle of it after riding both ends. The former first-round pick hasn’t grown much as a pitcher since his rookie season three years ago, despite a one MPH jump in fastball velocity.
2025 was Williams’ highest strikeout rate and highest walk rate. His groundball rate continued to rise, but so did his home runs and overall heavy hit rate. In drafting Williams, he believes he will continue to magnify the good in his skill set while suppressing the bad, but that’s asking for a player who benefited from an extremely high left-on-base percentage (83.8%) and extremely low BABIP (.254) in 2025.
In addition, Williams dealt with persistent elbow problems in 2024, which cut his season in half. He somehow managed to make a full 31 starts in 2025, but that doesn’t rule out more elbow issues. Hard-throwing starting pitchers like Williams are the most prone to arm problems, and he may not only decline but miss time due to injury in 2026. The talent is tempting, but the risks and profile thus far are unappealing, even at his post-100 ADP price.
SP Matthew Boyd (CHC)
2025 ERA: 3.21
2025 xFIP/CHEESE: 4.22/4.09
Matthew Boyd carried his success from late 2024 to 2025, despite playing on his fourth team in four seasons. Boyd completed at least 30 starts for the third time in his career, won 14 career games and had a career average fastball velocity of 93.3.
Unfortunately, Boyd’s strikeout rate dropped to his lowest since 2021. He is also pitching in the upcoming World Baseball Classic and is coming off a season in which he pitched more than 80 innings for the first time since 2019. The potential for Boyd to improve on the surface after his stellar 2025 is minuscule. He would need another jump in speed and maintain his health for more than a year (a tough task considering his history).
SP Luis Castillo (SEA)
2025 ERA: 3.54
2025 xFIP/CHEESE: 4.09/4.03
Luis Castillo is not on any particular cliff, but rather on a plateau. His average fastball velocity and strikeout rate have steadily declined in recent seasons, both reaching career lows in 2025. The 33-year-old SP is no longer a frontline starter, but a capable innings-eater with some name value on a high-octane staff in Seattle.
Drafting him isn’t a death sentence, especially in the best ball, where his bad weeks will be erased. However, the upside is limited going forward, especially after a deep postseason run for the Mariners that included three more appearances for Castillo. His 2025 ADP after pick 100 reflects his decline, but doesn’t reflect the fact that he’s fully healthy and has lost his stuff.
Castillo’s ability to regularly pitch into the seventh inning is valuable, but especially in points or quality starter leagues. He’s the worst kind of safe because, given his name, you can keep starting him when he’s struggling, like a Jose Berrios or some other former fringe ace from the past. You’re better off drafting younger SPs in his range to target potential aces rather than a back-end fantasy starter who offers replacement-level value.
RP Emilio Pagan (CIN)
2025 ERA: 2.88
2025 xFIP/CHEESE: 3.91/3.18
Pagan’s 2025 season was a boon for the Reds and any fantasy manager who took him off the waiver wire after the aforementioned Alexis Diaz’s struggles. Despite playing just 33 games in his first eight MLB seasons, Pagan earned 32 saves in 2025 and a new contract to remain with the Reds as their designated closer.
Unfortunately, Pagan is a volatile reliever who has more seasons above a 4.00 ERA than not. He’s hovered between 3.00 and above 4.00 every year and hasn’t made many marginal changes beyond his elite 2.91 xERA in 2025. However, pitching half the time at Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark isn’t nice to anyone, especially not those, like Pagan, who allow fly balls more than half the time (56.7%).
Pagan’s flyball percentage in 2025 was the highest he’s seen since 2021, and it could bite him in the backfield with some bad luck, or as we call it, standard regression. He’s a great pick if you missed an early closer or two, given the scarcity and the fact that he’s guaranteed the job on opening day.
RP Carlos Estevez (KC)
2025 ERA: 2.45
2025 xFIP/CHEESE: 4.95/4.43
Estevez is a much easier fade than anyone else on this list. He has seriously overachieved in two straight seasons, which means the regression monster should come calling in a big way (like Alexis Diaz in 2025). His skills declined from 2024 to 2025, but he still posted an identical 2.45 ERA and 42 total saves, 16 more than in 2024. Estevez’s 11.9% K-BB rate in 2025 is comparable to mediocre middle relievers like Justin Topa and Tristan Beck, rather than high-end or even mediocre closers.
Somehow, Estevez has the second-most saves since 2023, trailing only the likely permanently banned Emmanuel Clase. Still, with Estevez’s spotty skills and the Royals’ changed outfield fences in 2026, it’s likely he’ll soon emerge from a coveted slot role as Clase for good.
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