Donald Trump’s week in Asia: BBC correspondents on the wins and potential losses

US President Donald Trump arrives in Asia for a whirlwind week of diplomacy, including a much-anticipated meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Top of the agenda between the two will be trade – an area where tensions have once again increased between the world’s two largest economies.

Trump lands in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur as a summit for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) begins on Sunday. He will next visit Japan and finally South Korea, where the White House says he will meet Xi.

So what are the victories Trump and other leaders hope for, and what are the pitfalls?

Our correspondents explain what you need to know about the week ahead.

By Anthony Zurcher, North America Correspondent

Striking new trade deals that provide opportunities for U.S. companies while continuing to flow tariff revenues to the U.S. Treasury Department will certainly be a central focus of Trump’s trip to Asia.

While there are multiple players in the global trade dance, China is the key to Trump’s success or failure. And Trump’s planned meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of Apec – the first since 2019 – could set the course for US-China relations for the remainder of Trump’s second term.

As the US president has acknowledged, draconian tariffs on Chinese imports are unsustainable. And although he has not explicitly said so, an escalating economic war with America’s largest trading partner would have devastating consequences – for the US, for China and for the rest of the world.

The sharp declines in major US stock indexes whenever China and the US reach a standoff underscore this reality.

When he returns to America next week, Trump will certainly be happy if he can strike a deal with South Korea and secure new Japanese investment in American manufacturing.

But his top priority is surely to convince Xi to resume purchases of U.S. agricultural exports, ease recent restrictions on foreign access to Chinese rare earths, give U.S. companies greater access to the Chinese market and avoid an outright trade war.

For Trump, as the saying goes, that’s the whole game.

By Laura Bicker, China correspondent

When Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Trump in South Korea on October 30, he wants to be the tougher negotiator.

That is why he is taking advantage of the Chinese stranglehold on rare earth metals, the minerals without which you cannot make semiconductors, weapon systems, cars or even smartphones. It’s a U.S. weakness, and China is exploiting it — just as it is hurting American farmers and Trump’s rural voters by not buying their soybeans.

Xi has also learned lessons from Trump 1.0 and this time Beijing appears willing to embrace the pain of tariffs. First, the US, which once accounted for a fifth of China’s exports, is no longer such a crucial market.

Still, Xi must balance an economic struggle with the US and his struggle with domestic challenges. And Washington is aware of Xi’s problems: high youth unemployment, a real estate crisis, mounting local government debt and a population unwilling to spend money.

Analysts believe China may want to make a deal if Trump agrees to export advanced AI chips or roll back more military aid to Taiwan.

But getting there won’t be easy. A big difference is that it often seems as if Trump is willing to roll the dice and gamble – but Xi is playing a much longer game.

So the question might be: can Trump wait?

By Jonathan Head, Southeast Asia Correspondent

During his visit to Malaysia, the American president seems only interested in one thing: playing the leading role in a ceremony organized especially for him, in which Thailand and Cambodia will sign a kind of peace agreement.

The two countries’ disagreements over their border remain unresolved, but under pressure to come up with something, they have made progress in agreeing to demilitarize the border.

Neither can afford to disappoint President Trump. In July, while they were still bombing and shelling each other, his threat to end tariff talks forced them to an immediate ceasefire.

Other ASEAN member states will hope that Trump’s mere presence, however brief, will normalize relations with the US.

They have had a tumultuous year, with their export-dependent economies badly shaken by his tariff war. Exports from the region to the US have doubled since Trump’s last visit to the Asean summit in 2017.

Once Trump leaves, the other leaders can go back to their normal business – the quiet, step-by-step diplomacy that drives the difficult progress of mutual integration.

Also on the agenda is a conflict that doesn’t have Trump’s attention: Myanmar’s civil war, which has haunted every Asean meeting since it was sparked by a brutal coup in 2021.

By Suranjana Tewari, Asia Business Correspondent

Asian manufacturing powers, which account for a large share of world production, will be looking for a reprieve from Trump’s tariffs.

Some have agreed on deals, while others are still in discussions – but no one has signed an agreement.

So ink on paper, or at least promising conversations, would be welcome.

Take China. The meeting between Trump and Xi signals progress, but the two leaders still have a lot to unravel, from tariffs and export controls to the source of it all: rivalry between the world’s two largest economies as they battle for an edge in AI and high technology.

Any easing of these tensions would bring relief to other countries in the region caught in the middle. Southeast Asia is perhaps the most trapped – for example, it is deeply entwined in US electronics supply chains, yet heavily dependent on Chinese demand.

Exports to the U.S. have doubled in the past decade, but tariffs of 10% to 40% would hit manufacturers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand.

It could also hurt U.S. chipmakers such as Micron Technology, which operates factories in Malaysia. The country exported about $10 billion worth of semiconductors to the US last year, about a fifth of total US chip imports.

Rich economies like Japan and South Korea face a different dilemma.

Although they are close allies of the US, they face unpredictable times – and will want to lock in tariff terms and investments. Automakers in both countries, which view the U.S. as a key market, are already struggling to navigate the chaos.

By Shaimaa Khalil, Japan Correspondent

Trump has described Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as a woman of great “strength and wisdom”.

This week, her ability to build a stable working relationship with him will be an early test of her leadership – and of Japan’s place in a changing world order.

In her first speech in parliament, she pledged to increase Japan’s defense budget, signaling her intention to shift more of the security burden to Washington.

Trump has spoken about this before and is expected to pressure Tokyo to contribute more to US troop deployments – Japan hosts the largest number of US troops abroad, around 53,000 troops.

Both sides also want to finalize a tariff agreement negotiated by her predecessor.

Particularly beneficial for Japanese auto giants Toyota, Honda and Nissan, U.S. tariffs on Japanese cars will be cut from 27.5% to 15%, potentially making them more competitive against Chinese rivals.

By retaining Ryosei Akazawa as chief rate negotiator, Takaichi is committed to continuity.

In return, Japan has pledged to invest $550 billion in the US to strengthen supply chains in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

Trump has also said Japan will increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including rice, a move welcomed in Washington but unsettling for Japanese farmers.

Takaichi’s ties to the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who shared a close bond with Trump, could also work in her favor.

Abe famously used rounds of golf at Mar-a-Lago to earn Trump’s trust — it’s the kind of personal diplomacy Takaichi may be trying to emulate.

By Jake Kwon, Seoul Correspondent

For South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, the pressing issues are Trump’s tariffs.

But that thunder was briefly stolen by rampant speculation that Trump might visit the border to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In August, Lee spent most of his time in the Oval Office flattering Trump as a “peacemaker.” Trump reacted enthusiastically to the prospect of sitting down with Kim, whom he has not seen since 2019. Kim said last month that he still remembers Trump “with great pleasure.”

Analysts believe Kim hopes to legitimize his nuclear weapons program with a new summit with the US president. There is no indication that a meeting is in the works.

Either way, Lee needs to negotiate a trade deal. Talks about cutting U.S. tariffs on South Korean exports from 25% to 15% have stalled, despite several trips by officials from Seoul to Washington. The sticking point is that Trump is insisting that Seoul invest $350 billion upfront in the US – roughly a fifth of the South Korean economy. Such a huge investment could cause a financial crisis, Seoul fears.

But in recent days, Korean officials have expressed hope and talked of tangible progress. And will be hoping for a signed deal by the end of the Trump-Lee summit on Wednesday.