With Jannik Sinner out of the tournament, Carlos Alcaraz is now an overwhelming title favorite at the Doha ATP 500. Alcaraz will face Andrey Rublev in the semi-finals on Friday, while Jakub Mensik will face Arthur Fils.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (5) Andrei Rublev
Alcaraz and Rublev will face each other for the sixth time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open championship match on Friday. Rublev may be a huge underdog, but he should be encouraged by having been relatively competitive in this match, even though he is 4-1 behind in the head-to-head series. Only once has the Russian lost lopsidedly, taking a set in each of their two meetings in 2025 (Wimbledon and Cincinnati). Rublev’s lone victory came via a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 decision at the 2024 Madrid Masters.
The world number 14 did well to beat Jesper de Jong, Fabian Marozsan and Stefanos Tsitsipas earlier this week, but the world number 1 on the other side of the net is a very different proposition. Rublev is 2-13 in his last 15 matches against top-five opponents and an even more alarming 4-17 in his last 21 against the top 10. Alcaraz got a wake-up call on Thursday with a 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-3 victory over Karen Khachanov, so the reigning Australian Open champion should be ready to up the pace at the business end of the tournament.
Choice: Alcaraz in 2
Arthur Phils versus (6) Jakub Mensik
There will be no final between Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner after Mensik upset the second-ranked Italian 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-3 on Thursday. Aside from an abdominal injury that forced him out of what would have been an Australian Open fourth-round match against Novak Djokovic, the start to this season has been great for Mensik. The 16th-ranked Czech’s 11-2 record also includes a title in Auckland.
After missing the second half of last year with a back injury, Fils is already in revived form. The 21-year-old Frenchman suffered a poor draw against eventual champion Alex de Minaur in the first round of Rotterdam, but he reached the Montpellier quarter-final and has eliminated Kamil Majchrzak, Quentin Halys and Jiri Lehecka so far in Doha. It is always difficult to follow up such a big result a day later, and Fils – even though he is not a Sinner – is not an easy opponent for Mensik.
Choice: Fils in 3
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