Thanks to macroeconomic uncertainty, festive demand and central bank accumulation, the precious metal has seen sharp appreciation both globally and in Indian markets.
Dhanteras-to-Dhanteras returns: a twelve-month bull run
During the last Dhanteras, October 29, 2024, gold traded at Rs 78,840 per 10 grams or $2,769 per ounce. As of Dhanteras 2025, the metal was trading at around Rs 1,28,200 or $4,254 per ounce. This represents an annual return of 63% in Indian rupees and 53% in dollars. “Gold appears to be on a global tour in search of newer destinations,” Ventura Securities said in its report titled Gold’s Supersonic Speed – Dhanteras’24 to Dhanteras’25. According to the company, these gains came despite multiple external pressures, including tighter U.S. labor figures, geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions.
The domestic momentum was no less historic. Gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) rose to Rs 1,32,294 per 10 grams in October, marking an all-time high on the Indian stock market. The MCX December contract rose 12.8% in October alone, from Rs 1,17,265 on September 30 to Rs 1,31,878 on October 17.
A historic year for precious metals
The rally was not just limited to the festive period. Gold continued its rise through much of 2025, breaching $4,300 on the COMEX and reaching a session high of $4,379 an ounce. Spot gold climbed 0.3% to $4,336 as of 0233 GMT on October 17, marking the strongest weekly gain since March 2020. Domestic research firm Motilal Oswal described the rally as a “rare and spectacular rise” that has pushed gold above $4,000 on COMEX and Rs 1,20,000 domestically.
The company noted that gold has already recorded more than 35 new all-time highs this year and is up more than 50% on the stock markets this year.
Manav Modi, Analyst, Commodities & Currencies at Motilal Oswal, attributed the increase to structural shifts in the global economy and said:
“Gold’s stellar rally reflects a confluence of macro shifts – from fiscal uncertainty and a softer dollar to strategic diversification by central banks. Asia is emerging as the epicenter of this realignment.”
Ventura Securities echoed similar sentiments, noting that ETF inflows, central bank purchases and dovish commentary from the US Federal Reserve were key contributors. “Gold fuels investor confidence and a strong sense of FOMO as every pullback is met with aggressive buying,” the company reported.
The jewelry segment shows a mixed picture
On the retail front, demand for lightweight jewelry has increased during the festive season, which can largely be attributed to high gold prices and changing consumer preferences.
Commenting on the seasonal demand dynamics, Colin Shah, MD, Kama Jewelry, said: “Despite gold prices hitting new highs, buyer sentiment is likely to remain bullish this festive season – mainly influenced by festive buying, higher disposable income due to favorable economic factors, and the Indian population’s affinity for the traditional yellow metal.”
However, he also pointed to a shift in purchasing behavior, saying, “Consumer preferences are rapidly shifting towards lightweight jewelry, more for adornment rather than investment. Driven by this trend, the festive season is expected to see a significant increase in demand for jewelry in the 9k to 18k segment, with a notable preference for heavier jewelry.”
Shah added, “Given the current market scenario, we foresee a celebratory increase of ~18% to 20% in total sales, signaling some relief in the burden faced by the gems and jewelery sector due to high import duties.”
During the second quarter of 2025, jewelry demand reportedly fell 17% year-over-year, as Ventura noted, while other investment options and alternatives saw increased interest.
Outlook for gold after Dhanteras 2025
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the further trajectory. Ventura noted that price resistances are seen at Rs 1,30,000 – Rs 1,35,000, with support at Rs 1,21,000 or $4,000. The company indicated that weakness could occur only if prices cross Rs 1,20,000 or $3,980.
Looking further ahead, Ventura wrote, “If we start the next rally from Dhanteras 2025, the uncharted territory of $5,000 per ounce / Rs 1,50,000 per ten grams could be in 2026.”
Sentiment was further boosted by Motilal Oswal’s commodity outlook for Samvat 2082, which forecast gold prices to trade between $4,250 and $4,500 on COMEX and Rs 1,28,500 to Rs 1,35,000 domestically, assuming a USDINR of 89.
Motilal Oswal’s Manav Modi and Navneet Damani jointly quoted, “We have achieved our target for gold on both COMEX and domestic front of $4,000 and Rs 1,20,000 respectively. While corrections may occur, a sustained above all-time highs could push prices towards $4,250-$4,500 on COMEX and, assuming USDINR at 89 state, Rs 1,28,500 – Rs 1,35,000 on the domestic front from a medium to long term perspective.”
Also read: Gold hits another record high, marking strongest week in five years. Clear path ahead or a bumpy ride?
As India enters the midpoint of the festive season, with Diwali on the horizon, historical buying patterns and cultural sentiment are expected to continue to influence domestic gold trade. MOFSL noted that prices in India have historically risen in seven of the past 10 Diwali seasons, with pre-Diwali gains often exceeding post-festival trends.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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