Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets – such as spreads, totals, teasers or props – and wondering, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.
In this space we will take a different approach. We focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the big picture – how teams, players or trends are performing – and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.
While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets such as spreads or totals, we often explore other options to maximize value.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
As always, we’ll start by examining the team fundamentals and pricing of this matchup – laying the foundation for the rest of our analysis.
Above is a chart courtesy of Timo Riske showing the team’s strengths, in which the Buccaneers have a slight overall edge from a fundamental perspective, largely due to a more efficient offense. While the teams are relatively evenly matched elsewhere, quarterback Brock Purdy (out) represents a clear upgrade over his backup, a hobbled Mac Jones (questionable), which helps explain how the market arrived at the current price for this matchup.
Even from a fundamental standpoint, there’s reason to lean toward the Buccaneers. According to Inpredict – a model that uses totals and preview markets to assess team strength – the 49ers rank as the ninth-best defense in the NFL. But that doesn’t reflect recent form. Without Nick Bosa and his PFF grade of 86.0, the unit has struggled. The ripple effect is clear: Bryce Huff, now facing more double teams, has also seen his production drop. As a result, San Francisco is posting its lowest snap pressure rates of the season, allowing 0.20 and 0.31 EPA per play in recent weeks. Due to the injuries, this is no longer a top-level defense.
One of the biggest differences in Baker Mayfield’s play this year compared to last season is his increased willingness to throw deep.
Baker Mayfield trails only Jalen Hurts and the Giants quarterbacks in deep-ball velocity, and he was one of the most efficient passers on those throws.
Now he faces a 49ers defense that relies heavily on single-high coverage and ranks in the bottom seven in separation allowed. Opponents attack San Francisco with the seventh-highest average target depth, and with the 49ers struggling to generate quick pressure without Nick Bosa, there’s reason to believe their field production could look even worse as the play continues to develop.
The goal is of course not only to supplement data, but also to project forward. And Baker should be able to break down this secondary over time.
On the other hand, while Mac Jones has been serviceable, he has yet to face a defense capable of consistently generating disruption or pressure, something Tampa Bay might be able to do now.
Only Trevor Lawrence has faced fewer pressure upsets than Mac Jones this season. That will likely change against a blitz-heavy Buccaneers defense, which actually ranks first with a 28% pressure disruption rate.
Just look at the unit values on the X-axis; moving a pressure rate from 14% to 22-24% could translate into a 2-3 point swing in this game.
Compounding the problem is Tampa Bay’s dominance against the run. The Bucs lead the NFL in both rush EPA allowed and passing percentage allowed, which should force the 49ers into obvious passing situations, making the push for disruption even more likely.
With Mac Jones dealing with injuries, this is a sneaky, tough matchup that could quickly get out of hand and play directly to Tampa Bay’s strengths.
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