Retail crypto has suffered the most since January 2025, while ETFs and DATs masked the real losses for Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP, according to Hougan.
Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has stated that the cryptocurrency market has been in a full-blown ‘crypto winter’ since January 2025.
The director said signs indicate the decline may be closer to the end than the beginning.
Positive news does not drive prices
In a recent post titled “The Depths of Crypto Winter,” Hougan explained that, despite continued positive developments in adoption, regulation and institutional engagement, the market is in a serious bear market.
Hougan noted that Bitcoin is down nearly 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, while Ethereum is down 53%, and many other digital assets are performing even worse. He said this should not be interpreted as a short-term correction or a small dip, but rather a deep, prolonged bear market, similar to previous crypto winters, including those in 2018 and 2022. He said factors such as excessive debt and widespread profit-taking by long-term holders have contributed to the current downturn.
Despite developments such as a new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh supporting Bitcoin, increasing institutional hiring in crypto, and growing adoption by traditional financial firms, investor sentiment remains very wary. Hougan said, “Good news doesn’t matter in the middle of winter,” adding that these tough market conditions tend not to end with enthusiasm, but with exhaustion and normalization of sentiment.
The Bitwise CIO also said that institutional flows played a crucial role in masking the true extent of the 2025 recession. He cited data from the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, which showed that assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP saw smaller declines, between 10% and 20%, largely due to support from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).
Other assets, including Solana, Litecoin and Chainlink, saw typical bear market declines of 37% to 46%, while Cardano, Avalanche, Sui and Polkadot saw losses ranging from 62% to 75%. Hougan explained that institutional access and investments through ETFs and DATs provided a cushion for some assets, while retail-focused tokens bore the brunt of the market downturn.
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For example, ETFs and DATs bought over 744,000 Bitcoin during the period, which amounts to approximately $75 billion in support. Without those institutional purchases, Bitcoin could have fallen by about 60% since January 2025, he said. As such, several factors could mark the end of the current crypto winter, according to Hougan, who also said:
“I think we will come back sooner or later. It has been winter since January 2025. Spring will definitely come soon.”
BTC’s global position is weakening
The depth of the current downturn is also reflected in Bitcoin’s position among global assets. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin has fallen out of the top ten assets by market capitalization and now ranks 13th globally, according to CompaniesMarketCap data as of February 2.
Its market cap has fallen to about $1.56 trillion, down from about $2.35 trillion in July 2025, when it ranked sixth after rallying above $119,000.
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